Featured Headlines:
Earth, Wind & Fire Live at Odyssey Global
China Takes the "Cath-Arctic" Road
Rates Tried to Fall. The Pacific Said, "No, Doll!"
UP, UP and Away as CPKC Sings the Chicago Blues
Earth, Wind & Fire Live at Odyssey Global
- Special Guest: Water
- Odysseus had it easy. Sure, it took him ten years to get home from Troy, he battled a Cyclops, survived shipwrecks, escaped a witch, resisted the Sirens and repeatedly irritated Poseidon. But, folks, he never had a customer asking for an ETA!
- Today’s global shipper faces a true supply chain odyssey. Appropriately enough, Earth, Wind & Fire are on tour this summer, with Water opening in a surprise appearance. Unfortunately, we’re not talking about the band. Here goes:
- Fire: Canada is burning, and the rails feel the heat. Canadian wildfires and smoke have again “afflicted” rail operations and inland transportation. Odysseus spent much of his voyage searching for a safe passage; freight planners increasingly do the same. Fire closes one corridor, flooding threatens another, and suddenly the straightest path to Ithaca, or Chicago, isn’t so straight.
- Wind: Poseidon is having a summer! Asia has endured a remarkable succession of typhoons, disrupting ports, vessel schedules, trucking and manufacturing. One storm creates delays; several in rapid succession create cascading problems as ships and containers wind up (pun!) where they’re needed neither when nor where expected. And closer to home, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season still awaits. Somebody really needs to stop angering the god of the sea.
- Water: Too much here, not enough there. Flooding can submerge roads and rail lines and isolate terminals, while drought does almost exactly the opposite and still stops freight. Low water on European rivers restricts vessel drafts and cargo loads. Meanwhile, El Niño bears watching for its potential future effect on Panama Canal rainfall. Apparently, Water, offended at being left out of the band, has demanded a solo career.
- Earth: When the road itself fights back. Earthquakes and landslides can damage ports, roads, bridges and railways in seconds. There’s no joke in the human toll of these disasters.
- The Sirens? Don’t fall for “normal.” Perhaps the greatest temptation for today’s shipper is believing that once this wildfire, typhoon, drought or flood passes, everything returns to normal. Odysseus survived the Sirens by tying himself to the mast. Modern supply-chain managers might find multiple routings, multiple modes, better visibility and stronger contingency plans a somewhat more comfortable methodology.
- Scylla and Charybdis, anyone? Avoiding one danger can steer you directly toward another. Reroute around weather and encounter congestion. Change ports and create inland complications. Add inventory and increase carrying costs. Reduce inventory and increase disruption risk. Welcome aboard!
- The lesson isn’t that the gods are angry or the end is near. It’s that resilience is no longer contingency planning. It is logistics planning.
- After all, Odysseus eventually made it home; his transit time was, well, just terrible!
China Takes the "Cath-Arctic" Road
- For centuries, the Arctic was an obstacle to global shipping. Now China is testing whether it can become a cathartic market shortcut.
- Chinese carrier, Sea Legend, has launched regular container service between China and Europe through Russia’s Northern Sea Route, with eight scheduled voyages this season. The attraction is obvious: a trip from Ningbo to Britain’s Felixstowe can take roughly 20 days, versus 30-40 days or more through the Suez Canal.
- That suddenly looks more interesting in a world where ships have faced disruption around the Red Sea and where the Strait of Hormuz represents another potentially dangerous chokepoint. The Arctic route simply goes the other way.
- But nobody should start digging a grave for the Suez.
- The first limitation is almost comically large: winter. It’s coming, y’all!
- The commercially viable Arctic navigation season is still only about three to four months. Sea Legend plans its 2026 service from August through October; other operators stretch the season somewhat depending on ice conditions and vessel capabilities.
- The ships are different, too. Arctic operations favor ice-class vessels with strengthened hulls and other cold-weather capabilities, while Russian waters can require icebreakers.
- Also, Sea Legend’s first 2026 vessel carries only about 1,740 TEU, tiny compared with the 20,000 plus TEU giants routinely used on Asia-Europe routes.
- Then there is the ol’ geopolitical catch. The route avoids the Suez and Hormuz, but it hugs Russia’s northern coastline (quite provocatively!), where Moscow controls access and icebreaker services. In other words, shippers aren’t eliminating geopolitical risk so much as exchanging one version for another, comrade.
- And the environmental irony is impossible to miss: climate change is making the shortcut possible, while increased Arctic shipping brings spill risks and black-carbon emissions that can accelerate warming.
- So no, the Northern Sea Route isn’t replacing Suez.
- But for perhaps the first time, the more interesting question is whether it has graduated from Arctic curiosity to seasonal commercial alternative.
The DOJ Would Like a Word
- Actually, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) would like 31 pages of words with importers. But one word in their new Resource Guide to Trade Fraud Enforcement receives particularly heavy billing: candor.
- Released July 14 by the DOJ-DHS Trade Fraud Task Force, the Guide explains how the federal government views, investigates and prosecutes customs and trade fraud. The Task Force itself is not new—it launched in August 2025—but its message has acquired a larger microphone.
- The Guide is not legally binding, does not create any new rights or defenses and is not a substitute for legal advice. It is, however, 31 pages of the government explaining what it considers suspicious, which laws it may use and who could wind up answering questions. So, light reading!
- First word: fraud. DOJ and DHS are framing trade fraud as more than a revenue problem or administrative customs matter. The Guide connects it to economic security, public health and safety, national security, forced labor and human rights.
- And the government has expanded the vocabulary considerably.
- The Guide identifies 16 common trade-fraud schemes, including false country-of-origin declarations, illegal transshipment, false Harmonized Tariff Schedule classifications, undervaluation, antidumping and countervailing duty evasion, free trade agreement fraud, shell-company schemes, port shopping and forged safety or environmental certifications.
- Not every customs mistake is automatically a federal crime. CBP can pursue violations involving negligence, gross negligence or fraud administratively, while DOJ may pursue civil or criminal cases when the facts support them. Intent still matters, folks; but so do patterns, ignored warning signs and compliance failures allowed to continue indefinitely.
- Next word: candor. The Guide calls truthful disclosure a legal requirement because CBP and other federal agencies rely heavily on information supplied by importers and their trade partners. Value, origin, classification, routing and product details are not places for creative writing.
- Then comes oversight. DOJ says companies must actively audit supply chains, verify partner representations and avoid willful blindness to suspicious pricing, routing or sourcing. An importer cannot simply hand information to a Customs broker and hand over responsibility along with it. That word remains yours.
- The cast may extend beyond the importer, too. The Guide warns that brokers, transporters, wholesalers, distributors and downstream buyers can face exposure when they knowingly facilitate or benefit from illegally imported merchandise. Apparently, this is an ensemble production.
- Importers should review classification, valuation, antidumping and countervailing duty exposure, free trade agreement qualifications and country-of-origin determinations. Supplier mapping, transshipment screening, forced labor due diligence and internal reporting procedures also deserve more than a quick spell-check.
- DOJ added an exclamation point on August 13. A new enforcement priorities memorandum formally named global trade and commerce as one of the National Fraud Enforcement Division’s five principal priorities, with prosecutors focused on systemic, high-impact violations involving transshipment, origin fraud, undervaluation, sanctions evasion and forced labor.
- So yes, the DOJ would like a word. Importers should make sure their records can do most of the talking.
Rates Tried to Fall. The Pacific Said, "No, Doll!"
- The Transpacific still has a pulse. July US imports climbed 4.5% to 2.51M TEUs vs. June, following the normal seasonal pattern. China did even better, rising 7.2% month-over-month (MoM) to 873K TEUs, its strongest month in a year. That’s hardly a booming peak season; yet it’s certainly not the demand collapse some were waiting for.
- The West Coast keeps winning back freight. West Coast ports captured 45.0% of U.S. imports, up again from June. Long Beach was the standout, jumping 15.8%, while LA slipped slightly. Translation: the Transpacific remains plenty busy, but the cargo isn’t landing evenly.
- And here’s the mildly annoying part: we entered this stretch expecting softer rates as capacity caught up with demand. Instead, weather and the resulting asset disorder in Asia have helped scramble the equation, while Panama restrictions have introduced fresh surcharges…and even GRIs are trying to make a comeback. Boo!
- Ports are busier, but this is not Congestion: The Sequel. Delays increased at most major gateways as July volumes rose. Long Beach and New York deteriorated sharply. Worth watching, yes. Reason to start hoarding canned goods, no.
- The bigger picture hasn’t really changed; it’s just gotten another monthly update. Tariffs remain messy, Panama is constraining vessel flexibility, and geopolitical disruption continues to interfere with global capacity and costs.
- Meanwhile, U.S. import demand is proving stubbornly resilient: July volumes were 14.1% above July 2019, even though YTD imports are down 0.9% year-over-year (YoY).
- So, our Transpacific takeaway: demand is decent, capacity exists, and the fundamentals still argue for eventual rate pressure, but the path downward has developed potholes. Weather, equipment/asset positioning, Panama and carrier pricing actions are creating just enough friction to keep the market from behaving as politely as everyone expected.
- In other words: we still see gravity. It’s just taking the stairs.
Capacity Jambalaya
- Welcome to this week’s trucking jambalaya, where every ingredient could make capacity a little harder, and more expensive, to find.
- First into the pot: brakes. (You need to marinate brakes for centuries, gang!).
- Brake Safety Week runs August 23 to 29, with inspectors across the U.S., Canada and Mexico focusing on commercial vehicle braking systems. Trucks with serious violations will be parked until repairs are made. Necessary? Absolutely. More trucks temporarily sidelined? Also an emphatic yes.
- (Eeek!) Next ingredient: Motus with a side of bugs.
- The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) new Motus registration system targets “chameleon carriers” that reappear under new identities after being shut down for safety violations. But rollout problems have unexpectedly deactivated some legitimate carriers’ Department of Transportation (DOT) numbers, temporarily preventing them from operating.
- FMCSA has acknowledged the problems and temporarily suspended some deactivations in June while Motus access and system issues were addressed.
- As your pot bubbles, add fewer trucks and drivers!
- Fleets have already cut 2.4% of their trucks and idled another 10%, according to ATRI. Its 2025 driver to truck ratio was 0.9, or about nine drivers for every 10 trucks. Analysts say driver attrition is accelerating, leaving little extra meat on this particular bone.
- And then AI walks into trucking’s apparently Cajun kitchen.
- AI data centers are becoming a major new source of freight demand. Experts estimate every gigawatt of U.S. data center expansion requires about 100,000 truckloads.
- U.S. data center capacity is expected to jump from roughly 24 gigawatts in 2026 to 110 gigawatts by 2030.
- Toss that final ingredient into our jambalaya and you get 8.6 million truckloads competing for a trucking pot that was already getting mighty crowded.
UP, UP and Away as CPKC Sings the Chicago Blues
- There are plenty of ways to cook up a domestic rail story this week, but let’s start with what’s up (and UP). Union Pacific’s (UP) peak season surcharges are going up, and sharply. On August 23, UP will double its Southern California surcharge from $500 to $1,000 per container and introduce a $1,000 surcharge in Northern California.
- UP says demand for domestic containers continues to rise across its network, forcing the railroad to reposition equipment while adding train capacity.
- But here’s the other thing that’s up: UP’s performance. Yay!
- Despite the volume surge, UP’s intermodal service metrics have held up better than its major U.S. competitors. Average intermodal train speeds increased 1.3% over the past four weeks versus a year ago. Speeds fell 2.4% at BNSF, 3.6% at CSX and 5.6% at Norfolk Southern.
- So, yes: UP’s prices are up, but so is its performance. Shippers might not love the first half of that sentence, but they should appreciate the second.
- Does anybody really know what time it is?
- Meanwhile, over in Chicago—now you know the last bullet is a double entendre (!)— intermodal shippers using CPKC’s Bensenville terminal have been singing the blues for nearly a month.
- A repaving project involving the terminal’s container handling pad has caused delays, exacerbated by a surge in inbound volume. The pad serves as both warehouse floor and parking lot, where containers are stacked after leaving trains before transferring to trucks.
- CPKC calls it a temporary, localized disruption rather than a broader network breakdown. That matters because its overall intermodal business is growing, with North American volume up about 6% year over year since July 1.
- Still, paving paradise to put up a parking lot while the party is getting busier has proved an unfortunate combination. (Joni Mitchell stayed in Chicago a few times… no, she did!)
- For Chicago shippers, apparently Saturday in the Park will have to wait.
