The U.S. is once again turning up the heat in the trade world—and this time, it’s targeting countries that continue to buy Russian energy.

In a move that could reshape global shipping and energy supply chains, President Donald Trump has floated the idea of secondary tariffs—penalties that would be placed on countries that continue doing business with Russia by importing oil, gas, or refined fuel products. While the threat is serious, it’s also uncertain—especially given Trump’s habit of reversing course on tariffs when political or economic pressure builds.

Still, even the suggestion of secondary tariffs has the potential to disrupt global trade. Here’s what it could mean, and how key Russian energy buyers might respond.

A Closer Look at the Countries in the Crosshairs

China

China is the largest buyer of Russian oil and gas by a long shot—and it’s unlikely to change that anytime soon. Russian crude offers China both a reliable energy source and a steep discount, helping offset rising global oil prices. Additionally, China has built dedicated infrastructure, like the Power of Siberia pipeline, that deepens its long-term reliance on Russian energy. While the U.S. may threaten tariffs, China is playing the long game.

Just recently, Trump backed off a plan to impose major tariffs on Chinese goods, reportedly due to pressure from U.S. tech and defense sectors that depend on Chinese rare earth metals. That reversal sent a clear message to Beijing: the U.S. may bark, but it doesn’t always bite—especially when it risks domestic supply chains. China is expected to call Washington’s bluff once again and continue business as usual with Moscow.

India

India has significantly increased its Russian oil imports since 2022, capitalizing on discounted prices. The country has been vocal about its energy needs, asserting that national interest comes first. While India maintains strong ties with the U.S., it’s unlikely to completely walk away from cheap Russian crude. However, it may try to soften its exposure—perhaps by reducing public purchases, using intermediaries, or shifting more trade to private refiners to avoid direct links that could trigger U.S. penalties. If secondary tariffs are strictly enforced, India may look to work around them rather than abandon the trade entirely.

Turkey

Turkey has managed to maintain diplomatic relations with both the West and Russia throughout the Ukraine conflict. It continues to import Russian energy and has become a key hub for gas transit to Europe. At the same time, Turkey is heavily dependent on U.S. and EU markets for trade. If secondary tariffs begin to bite, Turkey may pivot toward gray-zone tactics—such as blending fuels, re-exporting through third countries, or shifting trade to smaller, state-linked firms that carry less reputational risk. Ankara’s decision will likely balance economic needs with its desire to stay in Washington’s good graces.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The UAE has emerged as a re-export center for Russian fuel products, especially diesel. It plays an opportunistic role—buying cheap Russian energy and selling it onward at market prices. While the UAE has shown some willingness to align with Western partners on global issues, it also values its energy trade flexibility. If the U.S. were to threaten sanctions or penalties, the UAE might tweak the structure of its trade (e.g., changing ownership structures or routes), but it’s unlikely to cut ties with Russian suppliers altogether unless the penalties become overwhelming.

European Union (EU)

The EU has reduced its direct reliance on Russian energy since the war in Ukraine began—but it hasn’t eliminated it. Some member states still receive pipeline gas, LNG, and refined products, either directly or through complex third-country transactions. Eastern European nations, in particular, remain dependent on Russian energy for both cost and accessibility reasons. That said, EU leaders have shown willingness to cooperate with the U.S., at least politically. If secondary tariffs are enforced, the EU may speed up its transition away from Russian fuel, but it likely won’t happen overnight. The economic burden—especially in winter months—may delay full compliance, creating a fragmented response across member states.

The Bigger Question: Will Anyone Actually Take Action?

A big part of the uncertainty around secondary tariffs comes down to credibility. Countries are watching closely to see whether the U.S. actually enforces these penalties—or backs off under pressure. Trump has a long track record of threatening tariffs and then reversing course. In 2019, he imposed tariffs on Mexico, only to drop them days later. He’s done the same with China multiple times, most recently scaling back plans due to the U.S.’s reliance on rare earth elements used in defense and tech manufacturing.

Because of this, many countries may choose to wait it out rather than make dramatic changes to their buying habits. The threat alone can disrupt markets, but without real enforcement, few nations are likely to abandon cheap Russian energy.

How This Impacts Global Shipping and Logistics

Even without full enforcement, secondary tariff threats can send shockwaves through shipping and logistics:

  • Energy cargo routes may shift to less obvious channels, increasing costs and complexity.
  • “Shadow fleet” tankers could see more demand as companies try to hide Russian ties.
  • Customs inspections and port delays may rise for shipments suspected of Russian origin.
  • Freight forwarders and customs brokers will face more pressure to verify the true origin of goods.
  • Insurance and compliance risks may grow, especially for trade involving petroleum-based products.

For shippers, importers, and logistics providers, the key is informed, proactive action.

Final Thoughts

Whether or not secondary tariffs on Russian energy become a reality, the message is clear: the intersection of politics and trade continues to disrupt global shipping, energy flows, and supply chains.

For now, countries like China, India, Turkey, and others may continue their current course—betting that the U.S. won’t follow through. But if enforcement kicks in, expect big changes in how energy is moved, priced, and documented.

In global trade, one thing remains certain: uncertainty itself is a major cost—and those who plan ahead will be in the best position to adapt.