Featured Headlines:

• In a world economy still wobbling from tariff tremors and geopolitical heat, global air cargo has done something remarkable: it has taken flight—joyfully, ambitiously—but without the waxen-winged hubris that doomed poor Icarus.

Soaring Without Melting

• October marked the eighth straight month of gains, with demand up 4.1% year-over-year, a performance strong enough to make even Daedalus nod approvingly. Capacity rose 5.1%, fueled by a resurgence in international traffic—clearly no fear of melted wings here.

Regional Performance:  Some Glide, Some Stall

• Not all wings beat equally, however. Some trade lanes lifted gracefully into the thermals while others drifted toward choppier air:
  • Africa led the global flock with a stunning 16.6% demand surge—the continent’s air cargo sector flying like it stole the skies.
  • Asia-Asia followed with 8.3%, staying firmly in the updraft.
  • Europe and the Middle East cruised with mid-single-digit gains—steady, no wing flutter.
  • North America and Latin America? Down 2.7%, the weakest globally, flapping a bit too close to sea spray for comfort.
  • Asia–North America has now spent six months in contraction, like a wing clipped by unpredictable currents.
  • This is a mid-air reshuffle, a flock re-sorting itself for maximum lift.

Macro Winds: Strong and Rising

• The global economic winds are blowing favorably:
  • Goods trade: +3%
  • Industrial production: +3.7% (fastest since March 2025)
  • Global PMI: rising for the third month to 51.45 (measuring the moods of purchasing managers has always puzzled me, tbh!)
  • If economic indicators were feathers, these would be the strong, glossy kind—excellent for altitude.

Jet Fuel, the Eternal Wild Card

• Of course, jet fuel had to make things interesting, flapping unpredictably as ever. Prices rose 2.5% as jet fuel remains the mischievous sun of the aviation world—always threatening to overheat the wings, always reminding airlines not to get too comfortable.

Bottom Line: Confident, but Not Careless

• Air cargo is heading into peak season with strong tailwinds and healthier wings than anyone expected earlier this year. As IATA put it, the sector remains nimble enough to dodge tariff turbulence without losing altitude—proof that wisdom, not recklessness, is keeping this industry aloft.
• Unlike Icarus, today’s global air cargo market knows better than to fly blindly into the sun. It’s not a wax-and-feather experiment anymore—it’s an engineered ascent.

• In the grand lagoon of global trade, the Trans-Pacific market has once again executed a perfect swan dive—arms out, wings spread, and rates plunging toward the water with the grace of… well, a confused bird.
• What briefly looked like a majestic ascent toward $3,000/FEU on the West Coast has performed its “I’ll swan!” moment and belly-flopped 32% to $1,900, sinking further than Andersen’s ugly duckling before chapter three. Meanwhile, East Coast rates lost their posture and glided back toward ~$3,000/FEU, a kind of “swan song” reprise of early October’s short-lived optimism.
• The much-discussed ONE Henry Hudson fire in LA? A dramatic plume, zero pricing impact. Like a Shakespearean swan wandering through Hamlet unnoticed, it reminded us that no single incident can out-perform the structural market forces honking from the wings.
• Farther afield, a fragile Gaza ceasefire has stirred talk of carriers transforming—Cygnus-style—back into their Suez-routing selves. CMA CGM already dipped its toes in the canal, gliding in with the confidence of an alpha swan claiming the pond. Maersk, ever the cautious bird, is still circling overhead, muttering something about not rejoining the party just yet.
• ZIM’s CEO, however, is leaning in with the enthusiasm of a waterfowl discovering fresh bread: a Suez return is “increasingly likely,” potentially sending 30% of global volume back through the corridor. Picture it: terminals bracing for a sudden flock of early arrivals, wings flapping, feathers everywhere.
• Reopening the Suez would free up ~2M TEUs of effective capacity—a veritable swan-migration surge. Sure, that could trigger pockets of congestion, but this swan dive may not have bottomed out just yet!
• Meanwhile, over in the Asia–Europe trade, carriers are enjoying something rare: a winning streak. After deploying blank sailings like defensive wingbeats, they managed a 40% rate rise, floating serenely in the $2,500–$3,000/FEU range. In swan terms, that’s practically mating-dance levels of success.
• December Transpac GRIs are lining up ambitiously—$3,000 to $4,000/FEU targets—but with demand still waddling and capacity sloshing around like overfed cygnets, analysts remain… let’s call it elegantly skeptical. Not a full-on “swan song,” but perhaps a muted honk of doubt.
• The market, like a mythical swan, continues its cycle of beauty, chaos, and unexpected plunges—leaving all of us on the shore, watching the ripples and wondering which bird is coming next: graceful Cygnus… or the ugly duckling of Q1?
• Contact our Freight Ornithologists to study the swan dips, dives and overall market patterns before the next great freight rate migration arrives!

• CTPAT just earned a fresh stamp in its global security passport: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has officially signed a Mutual Recognition Arrangement (MRA) with South Africa, and the Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) Portal has now been updated to reflect the new partnership.
• Members can now select South Africa as a Mutual Recognition Program within the CTPAT Portal, opening the door to smoother coordination and stronger alignment between both countries’ trusted-trader frameworks.
• Once selected, CTPAT is authorized to securely share the following information with government officials managing the South African Revenue Service – Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) Program:
  • Company name
  • Company identifiers (SCAC, Importer of Record, MID)
  • CTPAT program status
  • Date of CTPAT membership
• CBP notes that this information will only be shared with officials directly responsible for administering South Africa’s AEO program—keeping data sharing targeted and controlled.
• A TSA-Authorized-PSA: As the CTPAT map gains another trusted partner, now is a great time to evaluate whether your organization could benefit from supply chain security certification. If you’re exploring CTPAT membership or strengthening your current profile, Shapiro’s team is here to help you navigate every checkpoint. Reach out to us at [email protected] to get started today.

• US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has officially expanded the roster of “qualified parties” authorized to pay duties on international mail shipments, as announced on November 21, 2025.
• This follows Executive Order 14324, which eliminated de minimis duty-free treatment for most shipments (including those entering via international mail) effective August 29, 2025, unless covered by 50 U.S.C. § 1702(b).
• Under the executive order, duties on international mail must now be paid either by the international mail carrier or by a CBP-certified qualified party acting on the carrier’s behalf.
• CBP has published the initial list of certified qualified parties, with more to be added as they complete the approval process. Importers and carriers should regularly check the CBP website for the most current list.
• Questions about qualification requirements can be directed to [email protected], and CBP strongly encourages all stakeholders to stay up to date as the list continues to grow.
• Additional guidance can be found in:
  • CSMS #65934463 – Shipment requirements for international mail
  • CSMS #66311990 – Carrier and qualified party compliance instructions
  • E-Commerce FAQs – Supplemental reference for mail-related shipments
• With de minimis disappearing from the mailbox, knowing who is certified to pay duties is now crucial. Stay tuned as CBP stamps more parties approved in the weeks ahead.

• Ever the busy trade-body, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued a Withhold Release Order (WRO) targeting goods made in Mauritius by Firemount Group Ltd., placing the manufacturer under immediate scrutiny.
• CBP’s action follows an investigation indicating the use of forced labor, prompting the agency to halt entry of affected merchandise.
• The WRO, issued November 18, 2025, covers garments, apparel, and textiles produced by Firemount. These shipments will be detained immediately upon arrival into the United States.
• Importers sourcing from Mauritius—or anywhere in the apparel supply chain—should take this as a clear signal to review suppliers, documentation, and traceability measures to ensure no forced labor is present at any stage of production.
• If this WRO hits close to home: importers should be ready to gather supply chain records, map production routes, and prepare admissibility packages if asked. Early action is always easier than last-minute scrambling.
• View all WROs & Findings by country and industry here.

• In a plot twist fit for a Dickens reboot, Costco—usually known for supersized bargains, not courthouse battles—has become the largest U.S. company to sue the Trump administration over its tariff policies.
• The retailer argues that the administration stretched its IEEPA emergency powers beyond their intended limits by imposing tariffs without a valid “unusual and extraordinary” national security threat.
• Costco’s filing highlights the fiscal whiplash importers have felt: tariff collections jumped from $118 billion in FY2024 to $195 billion in FY2025, tightening margins across multiple sectors.
• At the heart of the suit? Costco’s effort to preserve its right to a complete refund should the Supreme Court ultimately deem the duties unlawful.
• The Supreme Court began hearing oral arguments in early November, setting the stage for a decision with massive consequences for importers, exporters, and federal revenue streams alike.
• If the Court strikes down the duties, experts warn that CBP may face an unprecedented surge in refund claims—a scenario where every importer suddenly wants their slice of the pie.

• Union Pacific (UP) is shifting Cincinnati-bound domestic containers to originate from City of Industry and Inland Empire terminals, reducing dray costs for Southern California shippers—but requiring rubber-tire transfers in Chicago, adding 30–40 miles of trucking where steel-wheel moves once sufficed.
• UP is also padding labor commitments for its planned Norfolk Southern acquisition, securing a fourth union agreement protecting jobs tied to the merger (disciplinary issues excluded).
• Meanwhile, Norfolk Southern (NS) is advancing its new reservation system for domestic intermodal drop-offs, now active in multiple major hubs—including Atlanta, Charlotte, Columbus, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Memphis, and St. Louis—with weekly expansions expected through March.
• High-volume IMCs will receive daily allocated slots, while smaller players participate in an open pool. NS is hosting information sessions throughout the network, including Cincinnati (Dec. 10) and Louisville (Dec. 11), ahead of the mid-January transition.
• On the regulatory front, waterfront employers are pressing the Surface Transportation Board to scrutinize the UP–NS merger, warning that further consolidation could tighten competition and strain port-side intermodal capacity—the last thing congested gateways need.
• The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is preparing a sweeping overhaul of  electronic logging device (ELD) certification, replacing the current self-certification model with a vetted, multi-step approval process designed to prevent fraud and reduce unexpected device revocations.
• The agency also signaled that nearly 44% of U.S. truck-driving schools may lose certification after a federal review flagged widespread noncompliance among training programs—raising questions about how the eventual shakeout may affect driver availability.