Featured Headlines:
Panama's Fully Booked Kitchen: When Shipping Shows Up Hungry
The Great CAPE Crusade: April 28 Dispatch
99 HTS Codes in the Sky, One New Balloon to Track
Are Your CTPAT Inspections Up to Par?
With or Without U2: UTO Has Found What It's Looking For
The Jones Act Hits Snooze (Again)
Clean on Paper, Dirty in Practice
Gridlock, Greenbacks, Girls and Goldilocks?!
The Sourcing Source of Truth
- Current Trends
- Let’s talk about where America is actually getting our stuff (non-petroleum, and yes—we’re ghosting Canada and Mexico for today).
- From a 30,000-foot view, sourcing still leans heavily toward Asia (43%), followed by North America (27%), and the EU (18%), with the rest of the world fighting over the crumbs.
- But the real drama? Who else but China?!
- Still the top non-North American supplier at 10.5%, but—brace yourself—that’s a jaw-dropping 46% drop since 2023. That’s not a dip, that’s a plot twist.
- Meanwhile, the understudies are stealing the show:
- Vietnam (+54%): Winning big in apparel/footwear and consumer electronics (think a furniture + gadgets combo platter).
- Taiwan (+107%): Absolute rocket ship, powered by semiconductors and advanced electronics. Chips are king, and Taiwan wears the crown.
- Not to be outdone, Thailand quietly clocked a 50% gain, driven by automotive components and electronics assembly. Not flashy, just effective.
- Europe also made a surprising cameo:
- Ireland (+41%): Fueled by pharmaceuticals and medical products (big pharma energy).
- Switzerland (+76%): Riding high on precision instruments and pharma exports (tiny country, massive margins).
- And then there’s India—the “next China” that never quite arrives on schedule. Despite a not-so-friendly 50% tariff curveball, India still posted +15% growth, thanks to pharmaceuticals, textiles, and engineering goods. Not bad under pressure.
- Old guard exporters Germany and Japan? Still relevant, but both are down over 10%. Call it a mid-career slump.
- Reshoring’s Big Splash?
- Tariffs were supposed to bring manufacturing roaring back to the U.S. Instead… we got a polite cough.
- Kearney’s 2025 Reshoring Index is still negative (-86), meaning offshoring is alive and well. Yes, tariffs reshuffled sourcing—but they didn’t magically rebuild domestic industry.
- Why? Simple:
- Some sectors (apparel, electronics) are basically unreshorable at scale.
- Building factories takes years and billions, not tweets and tariffs.
- Bottom line: reshoring is a slow burn, not a fireworks show.
- Future Sourcing
- The next chapter isn’t about replacing China—it’s about diversifying away from it.
- Winners to watch include Asia’s new A team:
- Vietnam: Still sprinting ahead in manufacturing.
- India: Too big to ignore, steadily climbing.
- Taiwan: Owning the high-tech lane.
- Thailand and Malaysia: Quietly building serious manufacturing muscle.
- Indonesia: The EV battery wildcard (hello, raw materials).
- Nearshoring glow-up (Latin America):
- Mexico (yes, we said we’d ignore it—but it’s unavoidable): still dominant.
- Dominican Republic & Costa Rica: Rising stars in textiles, medical devices, and electronics.
- Colombia: Gaining traction in light manufacturing and services.
- The wildcards:
- Bangladesh: Already beating China in garment exports (low-cost wins again).
- South Korea: High-tech powerhouse doubling down.
- Turkey: The “gateway” player bridging Europe and Asia.
- Sourcing isn’t coming home—it’s spreading out. The future isn’t “Made in America.” It’s “Made… in a carefully curated list of politically friendly, cost-effective, supply-chain-savvy countries.” Globalization didn’t die. It just got pickier.
Panama's Fully Booked Kitchen: When Shipping Shows Up Hungry
- War in the Middle East was supposed to throw the global supply chain into chaos. Instead, it sent a wave of famished diners straight to one place: The Canal Kitchen in Panama.
- And suddenly, the tables are full.
- Between October 2025 and March 2026, the Panama Canal served up 6,288 vessel transits—about 224 more covers than the same stretch last year.
- What used to be a steady dinner service has turned into a packed house. Daily seatings have crept up from 34 ships in January to 37 in March, with the occasional rush pushing past 40. No new tables. No expanded dining room. Just more guests showing up, all at once.
- The menu hasn’t changed either—but what’s being ordered has.
- Container ships are still the house favorite, the equivalent of a classic sancocho—reliable, always in demand. But now energy cargo, especially LPG, is flying out of the kitchen like fresh ceviche at a seaside market. The mix is shifting as global diners rethink their routes and Panama becomes the hottest reservation in town.
- And then there’s the walk-in situation.
- The canal still holds back a handful of tables—three to five slots a day—for ships that didn’t bother to book ahead. Before Hormuz, those last-minute seats went for about $135K–$140K. Think of it as a reasonable upcharge for skipping the line.
- Now? The average check is closer to $385K. Where is Panama’s Michelin star, gang?!
- Same table. Same meal. Just a much steeper cover charge if you show up late and peevishly peckish.
- What’s remarkable is that the kitchen itself hasn’t changed. No new equipment. No revised rules. The chef didn’t suddenly decide to make things exclusive. The surge is coming entirely from the dining room—demand that showed up unexpectedly from halfway across the world.
- Even the old constraint—water levels, once the equivalent of a limited ingredient supply during the 2023–2024 drought—is no longer an issue. A record wet season has fully restocked the pantry. The kitchen can cook. And cook it does.
- So, while other parts of the global supply chain are still figuring out their seating charts, Panama is doing what any savvy restaurateur would do with a line out the door: keep service moving and charge a premium for the best seats.
- Make a reservation. Because walking in without one isn’t just risky anymore—it’s a budget decision!
Inflation, Now Boarding
- Economists might call this “deeply inconvenient,” but global airfreight markets are currently ignoring the basic laws of supply and demand.
- Demand is down roughly 8% year over year. Capacity? Only down about 3%. In a normal world, that combination would send rates drifting gently downward.
- Instead, spot rates have decided to do their own thing—climbing globally to $3.76/kg for the week ending April 12. That’s +37% YoY and more than +40% since late February.
- So, what changed? Not demand. Not capacity—at least not in the way spreadsheets like to pretend matters. Those dissembling, dishonest spreadsheets!
- The real culprit: the cost of simply getting from A to B (now via C, D, and possibly E).
- Airlines are rerouting around conflict zones, flying longer distances, burning significantly more fuel, and stacking up inefficiencies that don’t show up in tidy economic models.
- And about that fuel…Jet fuel prices have been anything but cooperative. Those dissembling, dishonest jet fuel prices!
- Jet fuel remains elevated versus pre-2023 norms, closely tracking volatile crude markets
- Geopolitical disruptions and refinery constraints have kept supply tight in key regions
- Translation: every extra mile flown is now premium-priced miles
- So yes—burning more fuel has, in fact, started to mean more. Quite a bit more.
- And those costs? They don’t stay in the cockpit. They land—gracefully—onto your rate sheet.
- The bottom line: We’ve arrived at a market where the inputs say, “prices should fall,” but the outputs say, “absolutely not!”
The Great CAPE Crusade: April 28 Dispatch
- On April 28, 2026, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials provided their latest update to the Court of International Trade (CIT) on IEEPA tariff refunds following the April 20 launch of CAPE Phase 1.
- Translation: the gates are open, the first wave is moving, and the Crusade is officially underway.
- Frontline Figures:
- CIT Update: April 28, 2026
- Phase 1 Launched: April 20, 2026
- Entries Validated: ~11,000,000
- Entries in Refund Process: ~1,740,000
- Takeaways
- CAPE is live and doing what it was built to do—process entries at scale. In its first week, millions of entries have cleared validation, and a meaningful portion has already advanced into the refund pipeline. That’s not theoretical anymore… that’s movement.
- That said, this is still very much a Phase 1 battlefield. Not every entry is being accepted yet, and CBP hasn’t laid out the full campaign map for what comes next or when additional phases will expand the scope.
- There are also a few unanswered scrolls still sitting on the table. CBP has not addressed key industry questions—including those raised by the surety community—and broader process clarity is still developing in real time.
- The practical takeaway: refunds are happening, but not all at once and not for everyone at the same time. This is a march, not a charge and patience is unfortunately part of the uniform.
- Eligibility
- Right now, the system is pulling from the pool of entries that meet Phase 1 acceptance criteria, and those are the ones you’re seeing move through validation and into refund status.
- But not every importer is in this first wave. Some are already seeing activity, while others are still waiting for their entries to be called into the fight.
- The key point: no movement doesn’t mean no eligibility—it just means your number hasn’t been called yet.
- Timing
- As of today, CAPE is actively accepting declarations and pushing validated entries forward into the refund process.
- CBP has not provided a firm end-to-end timeline, but current guidance suggests that once an entry is accepted, refunds could follow within a 60–90 day window, assuming no additional review is required.
- What happens next will depend on how quickly CBP rolls out additional CAPE phases—and whether any legal developments shift the pace of the process.
- For now, expect continued progress… just not a cavalry charge that clears everything overnight.
- And while the path forward may not always be clear, Shapiro’s CAPE Crusaders are very much on the front line—tracking each update, decoding the fine print, and helping you figure out whether your entries are advancing… or still waiting for their turn in the queue.
- We’re tracking these updates in real time—check out our ongoing CAPE coverage here: https://www.shapiro.com/tariffs/tariff-news/trumps-trade-tariff-updates
- For additional IEEPA guidance, visit CBP’s webpage here: International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Duty Refunds
99 HTS Codes in the Sky, One New Balloon to Track
- You and I in a little Chapter 99… and suddenly one more code is floating through the system.
- On April 27, 2026, the Department of Commerce issued a technical correction to its April 2 Section 232 proclamation, and while it’s not flashy, it matters for how certain entries should be filed.
- Enter 9903.82.01—the new HTS provision for products that do not contain steel, aluminum, or copper, but still fall within the broader 232 reporting universe under U.S. Note 16.
- Effective for entries on or after April 6, 2026, this code essentially pulls non-metal goods back out of the 232 line of fire.
- The key is reporting it correctly. Miss this code when it applies, and a product that should be duty-free could still get pulled into the 232 tariff mix.
- We’ve been talking about this since the April 2 overhaul—when the 232 net got wider with full-value application, and now we’re seeing the follow-up adjustments to keep the right goods from getting caught in it.
- So yes, while everyone’s been focused on heavy metals getting heavier, this is one of those quieter fixes making sure non-metal goods don’t get swept up along the way.
- For our metalheads: not every track on this 232 album needs to go platinum… but you still have to play it right.
- Bottom line: 99 HTS codes go by… this is the one you don’t let drift past your entry.
- For full details, review the Federal Register notice here:
Notice of Technical Corrections to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States for Duties Imposed by Presidential Proclamation 11021 - And if you’re keeping up with every twist in the 232 rollout, we’re tracking the full setlist, from the heavy hitters to the quieter corrections. Reach out to [email protected] or follow our continued coverage so nothing floats past unnoticed.
Are Your CTPAT Inspections Up to Par?
- We’ve heard plenty from the Gulf lately. Let’s talk about the Golf instead.
- CBP is seeing a noticeable increase in attempts to introduce contraband and narcotics into refrigerated ocean containers, particularly at ports and loading facilities across Central and South America.
- The risk is rising, and for Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) members, that puts more pressure on getting the fundamentals right.
- The core control is the 8-point container inspection at the point of stuffing. Not 9 holes. Not 18. Just eight, and each one carries weight.
- Required 8-Point Container Inspection: 1. Front Wall: Inspect for hidden compartments, structural damage, or signs of tampering.
- Left Side: Examine the entire left side for integrity, holes, or modifications.
- Right Side: Examine the entire right side for integrity, holes, or modifications.
- Floor: Inspect for false floors, concealed spaces, or signs of tampering.
- Ceiling/Roof: Check for false ceilings, roof modifications, or hidden compartments.
- Interior/Exterior Doors: Inspect locking mechanisms, hinges, seals, and door integrity for tampering or unauthorized access.
- Under/Carriage: Check the undercarriage for hidden compartments, structural alterations, or evidence of tampering.
- Refrigeration Unit/Exterior Access Panels: Inspect the refrigeration unit and exterior access panels to the unit for signs of tampering, hidden spaces, or unauthorized access.
- It also goes beyond the container itself. Inspectors should be looking for pest contamination such as soil, plant material, or insects, along with the condition of external hardware like locks, rods, rivets, and brackets.
- Because if there’s a hole in your inspection process, someone else will find it first.
- CBP has made it clear that incomplete inspections or poor documentation can lead to suspension or removal from CTPAT.
- That means inspections should be done in secure, well-lit areas, handled by trained personnel, and fully documented with seal numbers recorded and high-security seals applied.
- Any signs of tampering or suspicious activity should be reported immediately to CBP at 1-800-BE-ALERT, your SCSS, or local authorities.
- Bottom line, this is not just about checking a box. It is about maintaining control of your supply chain when the environment around it is getting more unpredictable.
- A strong CTPAT program does more than protect cargo. It strengthens your standing with CBP and shows you are operating at a higher level.
- If you are looking to tighten up your inspection process or want a second set of eyes on your “course,” working with a trusted CTPAT partner like Shapiro can help keep your scorecard in good shape.
- For more on CTPAT best practices and program guidance, contact us at [email protected] or visit Shapiro’s CTPAT webpage.
With or Without U2: UTO Has Found What It's Looking For
- Not every update needs a drum solo, but this one is worth a quick listen.
- The U.S. Census Bureau has officially launched USA Trade Online: Reimagined, beginning the transition away from the legacy UTO platform many of us have been using for years.
- At its core, USA Trade Online (UTO) is the go-to source for U.S. import and export data. It allows users to build reports, analyze commodities, and break down trade flows by country, district, and port.
- The biggest change here is usability. Users no longer need to create a full account to access and save reports. Instead, reports can be saved using an email address, cutting out password management and speeding up access.
- The interface has also been simplified. Report selections now live on a single screen, making it easier to build and refine queries without jumping between menus.
- Sharing and collaboration have improved as well, with easier report distribution and better organization tools like tagging and dataset filtering.
- The data itself remains robust, including:
- Harmonized System (HS) district-level imports and exports
- HS port-level imports and exports
- State export data by origin of movement
- State import data by origin of movement
- NAICS district-level trade data
- The key timing note: the legacy UTO platform will be decommissioned in June, so now is the time to get familiar with the new system before the switch is complete.
- Bottom line: the data hasn’t changed, but the way you access and work with it has. And in this case, that’s a good thing. You can explore the new platform and user guide here.
The Jones Act Hits Snooze (Again)
- Let’s be honest (for once!)—nobody uses alarm clocks anymore. It’s all smartphones now. Multiple alarms, backup alarms… and, of course, the snooze button.
- And right on cue, the Jones Act waiver just hit snooze. Again?!
- If you were expecting the waiver to quietly expire in May, go ahead and reset your phone. The administration has extended it another 90 days, pushing things well past the original May 17 wake-up time.
- This isn’t a surprise. It’s what we do now. The alarm goes off, everyone looks at the situation, and collectively decides, “yeah… not yet.”
- The underlying issue hasn’t changed. The supply disruptions and price pressures that triggered the original waiver are still very much alive. Add in ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz and energy markets jittery with “alarm”, and this was never going to be the moment to suddenly “wake up” and tighten domestic shipping rules.
- We’re just jonesing to hit snooze again! (Get it?)
- Quick refresher while we’re all still half asleep: the Jones Act, in place since 1920, requires cargo moving between U.S. ports (only) to travel on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, and U.S.-crewed. The goal is straightforward—national security, maritime jobs, and a viable domestic fleet.
- In theory, it’s a system designed to be ready when you need it.
- In practice, when demand spikes or global events throw supply chains off balance, that same system starts to feel like an alarm you set years ago but never updated. The pool of eligible vessels is limited, and when things get tight, capacity becomes the constraint.
Clean on Paper, Dirty in Practice
- Let us use the Socratic Method to discuss sustainability and “green” shipping. Oh, let’s!
- “The fuel is on-spec, correct?” Correct.
- “It passes ISO 8217 tests?” It does.
- “Obviously, it’s good fuel?” …Errrr, define good.
- Shipowners already juggling high fuel prices and tight supply in Asia now get to play a new game: What’s Actually In The Fuel? (Hint: the certificate is not a spoiler.)
- Marine insurer, Skuld, has flagged a pattern of perfectly “compliant” bunker fuel showing up across Singapore, Hong Kong, and Malaysia. On paper, it’s pristine. Clean. Respectable. The kind of fuel you’d introduce to your parents.
- Now let’s ask one more question:
- “What happens when you actually look closer?”
- More advanced GCMS testing turns up elevated levels of hydrocarbon compounds, phenolics, and alkylresorcinol derivatives—which sounds less like fuel and more like the hemlock premium blend Socrates would urge you not to drink.
- “Really? A poisoning of one of the great philosophers joke?!” Yes, yes indeed.
- Dirty fuel causes sludge, fouled filters, injection issues and general mechanical misery.
- This blend also looks suspiciously familiar—similar to VLSFO cocktails from the ARA region back in 2019, often tied to Estonian shale oil. Which raises an obvious question: Are we innovating here, or just rerunning old mistakes with better paperwork?
- Skuld scolded that as prices rise and supply tightens, some suppliers are getting creative. Not illegal. Not off-spec. Just philosophically questionable.
- And that’s really the issue.
- Because somewhere between “technically compliant” and “actually usable,” we’ve created a system where the paperwork passes with flying colors—and the engines quietly poison the shipping industry while increasing costs.
- And yes—apologies for using the death of Socrates as a bunker fuel analogy. In fairness, he did insist on questioning everything.
- For a broader look at how “on paper vs in practice” is playing out across supply chains, check out our latest blog: From Earth Day to Berth Day: Tracking the Carbon Footprint of Every Shipment.
Gridlock, Greenbacks, Girls and Goldilocks?!
- Business’ metaphorical abuse of Goldilocks and The Three Bears is truly endless! Welcome to our version—where the porridge bites back and the bears lawyer up.
- This porridge is too hot! NY-NJ’s empty container problem doth spillith over.
- Goldilocks peeks into the port… and finds empties stacked higher than Papa Bear’s patience. So now the port says, “If it’s sitting anywhere in the neighborhood, it’s now your messy bowl of porridge.”
- In Bear talk this means, “move the grumbling oatmeal off the growling table before I claw into your shipping budget.”
- APM shuffled empties to a shiny 12-acre “not-my-problem” corner… which promptly became very much everyone’s problem.
- The port politely suggests carriers “manage better.” Meanwhile, trucks form a conga line that makes Goldilocks reconsider carbs altogether.
- Bottom line: You can move the porridge to another bowl, but it’s still burning the roof of your bottom line.
- This porridge is too expensive! New York vs. DOT in a political showdown.
- Mama Bear (NY) and Papa Bear (DOT) are arguing over who spilled $73.5M worth of porridge—and neither is cleaning it up.
- The Feds say, “You handed out licenses like bedtime cookies.” The state says, “That’s not your chair to sit in.”
- Meanwhile, Baby Bear (the driver pool) is stuck wondering, “Wait… am I licensed or just… vibing?”
- Everyone’s pointing paws while the porridge cools—and nobody’s sure who’s allowed to eat it.
- Bottom line: Until the bears stop arguing, the drivers are stuck in the woods with a map describing a road to nowhere.
- This porridge is too BAD! Women in trucking: the gap isn’t interest.
- Goldilocks shows up ready to drive—but the cabin? Not exactly welcoming.
- It’s not that she doesn’t want the porridge—it’s that the kitchen is dark, isolated, and missing a few basic things… like safety.
- From lonely truck stops to “hope for the best” infrastructure, the story reads less fairy tale, more survival tale.
- Sure, tech is arriving like a helpful woodland creature—routing, telematics, smarter systems—but it’s not fixing the fact that the house itself needs work.
- Bottom line: The industry doesn’t need to convince Goldilocks to come inside—it needs to make the cabin somewhere she’d actually want to stay.
