U.S. Announces Trade Deals with the Philippines and Japan (Updated 7/23)

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Shap Talk

Featured Headlines:

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

Power Plays & Mega Ships

U.S. Cargo Airlines Say “No Más” to Mexico

Crystal Clear: New ADD/CVD Duties May Be on the Horizon for Solar Components

Christmas Came Early: CBP Unwraps Updated Forced Labor Dashboard

Wrapping Up with an Order of BIS-ness

Tariff Trauma: Small Businesses Hit Hard

The A(ir) You Don't Sea

Rails, Roads & Rumblings

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

  • This week, Transpacific average 40’ rates to both the WC and EC returned to within 1% of YTD lows.  The WC danced up 280% only to fall 36%; not to be outdone, the EC boogied up 219% while dropping below the limbo pole by a full 50%.   But, enough about freight!
  • Mother AI seems to actually “believe” that Sir Issac Newton coined the titular phrase in the late 17th century.  Her son, Boy Bot, however, knows it really became dope when Blood Sweat and Tears belted out “Spinning Wheel”, the #2 hit in 1969 from the album of the year for 1970.
  • In this case the AI apple did fall far from the tree (after bouncing off Sir Issac’s dome)!
  • Now, let’s peek at verse one of Spinning Wheel:
    • What goes up must come down
    • Spinnin’ wheel got to go ‘round
    • Talkin’ ‘bout your troubles, it’s a cryin’ sin
    • Ride a painted pony, let the spinnin’ wheel spin
  • Before you get too nervous, a “painted pony” refers to a carousel horse and its fate of riding in circles, a truly apt metaphor for the ocean cargo game today.
  • The spinning wheel fits well for tariff fits and starts and global trade war politics.
  • And frankly, I think we are ALL talking about our troubles in this sector.  While it’s quite easy to feel empathy for shippers, one can even eke out some sympathy for the carrier devils… despite their recent attempt at a Covid curtain call during the surge.
  • Let us hope that not only ocean rates must come down, but also average tariff levels and the tsunami of trade uncertainty will come tumblin’ tumblin’.
  • Let us end with a vaguely maritime quote from Sir Isaac: “what we know is a drop, what we don’t know is an ocean.”   We’re not sure about you, scholarly reader, but we’ll be glad to drop all this uncertainty so we know this ocean game again!
  • As we ride off into the sunset on our painted pony, we’ll offer our best bet for August:  FAK goes up while contract PSS goes down.

Power Plays & Mega Ships

  • Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison may hit a regulatory wall in Beijing as it tries to “off-load” its $22.8B global port portfolio to BlackRock and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report.  The WSJ has ALL the gossip, y’all!
  • China could block the deal unless shipping giant Cosco (owned by China) gets a piece of the pie.  So, China approves the pie ingredients, tastes the pie, and then eats the pie!
  • We’re sure this is not exactly a recipe for bliss for the shipping tycoons in Geneva!
  • The proposed sale covers terminals at 43 ports in 23 countries — including key facilities near the Panama Canal, an area flagged by President Trump as a U.S. strategic priority.
  • BlackRock, Hutchison, and (even) MSC are reportedly open to Cosco joining in, but with a July 27 deadline looming for exclusive talks, time is running short.
  • No official comments yet from any of the major players nor the White House.  One anonymous WH source is rumored to have screamed that nothing the WSJ says is true.  Hmmmm.
  • Meanwhile, MSC is flexing its shipbuilding muscles, placing orders for 10 more ultra-large LNG-capable vessels across three Chinese shipyards. The company’s newbuild orderbook now rivals the entire fleet of Ocean Network Express (ONE), the world’s 6th largest carrier.   Is somebody gigantic betting against the Chinese ship tax?!
  • The latest orders—some over 22,000 TEUs apiece—are set for delivery in 2028–2029, with estimated price tags around $200M per ship.   The Chinese government may or may not have whispered that these same vessels would cost $2B if made in the US.  That’s just not nice, China!
  • With over 130 ships now on order, MSC’s future fleet will surpass 7 million TEUs in capacity, cementing its lead as the world’s largest container line and signaling a strong bet on LNG (liquified natural gas) as a dominant transitional fuel.

U.S. Cargo Airlines Say “No Más” to Mexico

  • In 2023, Mexico forced all-cargo airlines out of Mexico City International Airport (MEX), pushing them to Felipe Angeles International Airport—a former military base 31 miles away—with little warning. The move spiked costs and caused major logistical headaches for hybrid operators like FedEx and UPS.
  • Trump’s Department of Transportation (DOT) is cracking down on what it calls a violation of the 2015 U.S.–Mexico air transport agreement. The Cargo Airline Association (CAA) says the forced relocation disrupted operations and “set a dangerous precedent.”  The CAA is also very angry about the food choices at Felipe Angeles… no, we’re serious!
  • Three-pronged US retaliation incoming:
    • Mexican airlines must submit all U.S. flight schedules by July 29 for DOT review.
    • Mexican carriers are banned from chartering large aircraft to/from the U.S. without pre-approval.
    • Delta–Aeromexico’s joint venture could lose antitrust immunity—potentially ending joint pricing and revenue sharing.
  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says they’ve received no official word from American federales and sees “no justification” for sanctions.
  • The DOT also warned Europe that unilateral moves (like Schiphol Airport’s slot cuts) might trigger U.S. retaliation. Last year, similar tension led CMA CGM and Air France-KLM to abandon a cargo JV.
  • The U.S. aims to defend Open Skies principles and discourage other countries from limiting cargo access under the guise of congestion or noise reduction.
  • CAA summed it up best: “Around the world, other governments are watching. If left unchallenged, this could embolden others to impose unjustified restrictions.”
  • How many trade-based fights can the US start around planet Earth at once?    It seems we are going to find out!

Crystal Clear: New ADD/CVD Duties May Be on the Horizon for Solar Components

  • A new trade case is shining a spotlight on solar inputs from Southeast Asia. Here’s what importers need to know…
  • Petition Filed:
    • On July 17, 2025, a petition was filed requesting antidumping (ADD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic (CSPV) cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos.
  • Scope of Investigation:
    • Covers CSPV cells—the foundational building blocks of solar photovoltaic power systems.
    • Includes cells whether or not assembled into modules, laminates, panels, or building-integrated materials.
  • HTSUS Classification:
    • Potentially includes products under HTS subheadings 8541.42.00 and 8541.43.00.
  • Investigative Agencies:
    • The Department of Commerce (DOC) and International Trade Commission (ITC) will review the petition and determine whether to initiate investigations.
  • Preliminary Determinations Expected:
    • Currently scheduled for September 2, 2025, unless extended.
  • For further information, please see the Federal Register Notice published on July 22, 2025.
  • Need help seeing the full picture? Shapiro’s compliance experts are here to keep your solar imports crystal clear and penalty-free. Reach out to us at [email protected] for guidance and impact analysis.

Christmas Came Early: CBP Unwraps Updated Forced Labor Dashboard

  • You can thank Christmas in July for this festive rollout—CBP just delivered a shiny new version of the Withhold Release Orders (WRO) and Findings Dashboard.
  • Designed to help the trade community track forced labor enforcement, the tool now features interactive data spanning from 1950 to present day.
  • As new WROs and Findings are issued, the dashboard will be updated in real time—no need to wait for a holiday miracle.
  • This revamped tool makes it easier than ever to monitor historical trends and current enforcement activity, all in one sleigh ride of a platform.
  • Access the new dashboard here: Withhold Release Orders & Findings Dashboard
  • View the Data Dictionary here: WRO & Findings Terms
  • For additional information on the new tool, please refer to CSMS # 65651741.

Wrapping Up with an Order of BIS-ness

Tariff Trauma: Small Businesses Hit Hard

  • Tariffs are tearing through small and medium-sized businesses, with Yedi Houseware President Bobby Djavaheri painting a vivid picture of the chaos during a recent chat with the Port of LA’s Gene Seroka.
  • The 150% tariff hikes and 70+ announcements since January have thrown companies like Yedi into a strategy tailspin. “It’s like a constant roller coaster,” Djavaheri said—minus the fun and safety harness.
  • China-dependent importers are feeling cornered. Djavaheri flat-out said: “No country outside of China can manufacture hundreds of thousands of high-quality air fryers a year.”
  • And Gen Z (or any other Gens)? Not exactly lining up for 12-hour production shifts.
  • Yedi’s response? SKU normalization—or in simpler terms, cutting the fluff and doubling down on what actually sells.
  • While major retailers and corporations have the cash to weather the tariff storm, smaller players are getting soaked. Djavaheri confessed that the cost burden isn’t falling on China; it’s falling on his balance sheet (and his team).
  • The impact trickles down to consumers. With companies like TJ Maxx warning that “Christmas is in jeopardy,” even your stocking stuffers aren’t safe.
  • Despite everything, Djavaheri’s not backing down: “This issue doesn’t discriminate… It impacts all of us.” For now, the only thing more unpredictable than tariffs might be U.S. trade policy itself.

The A(ir) You Don't Sea

  • While most airlines obsess over sleek booking platforms, American Airlines Cargo is pointing its AI inward—focusing on invisible but impactful improvements to how freight is actually handled behind the scenes.
  • Using predictive algorithms, the airline is forecasting what cargo will actually arrive, not just what was booked. Think “1,000 kgs on “paper” but 900 or 1,200 in reality?” This AI crewmate already knows.
  • From booking bluff to operational truth, the system quietly adjusts weights before cargo even arrives, allowing smoother handoffs and fewer delays.
  • From truck rebooking to accounting, automation is being used where it counts—in the unglamorous but crucial back-end processes that make air cargo move.
  • The goal isn’t replacement but reallocation. Staff are spending less time on repetitive work and more time solving real problems. “It’s about unlocking ingenuity,” the airline says.
  • This is AI with a badge and a clipboard — not trying to be customer-facing but transforming cargo ops quietly from the inside out.
  • In other news, American Airlines Cargo laid off 91% of their staff yesterday.   We’re kidding!   Come on, we’re just kidding!!

Rails, Roads & Rumblings

  • Borderline Volatile: Tariffs Trigger Freight Whiplash
    • The U.S.–Mexico border is now the poster child for freight volatility. With tariffs looming large, northbound truck traffic is bobbing up and down like kids on a seesaw:
    • January: + 10.2%
    • February: – 6.3%
    • March: + 12%
    • April: – 4.5%
    • Blame the tariffs. Or toast them, depending on your perspective. Northbound crossings at Eagle Pass jumped a whopping 49.2% in Q1 thanks to America’s insatiable thirst for Mexican beer (yes, Modelo might just be driving trade policy).
  • Drayage in Distress: Old Dogs, New Tech
    • While beer trucks roll in, U.S. drayage companies are fighting for survival. The culprits? Tech-enabled upstarts and rising costs.
    • Long-standing operators in LA and Long Beach are bleeding market share to brokers using apps that let shippers bypass legacy providers.
    • COVID-era cost creep hasn’t gone away—but rates? Sinking.
    • California’s clean air push adds extra burden: diesel trucks are out by 2035, and “indirect source rules” require emissions cuts from any trucks entering ports and warehouses.
    • To stay alive, drayage players are merging, consolidating, and—yes—parking creatively. That’s where Truck Parking Club rolls in.
    • Founded in 2022, they’ve expanded from 1,000 to 2,300 bookable parking spaces with a goal of 10,000 by 2026.
    • Drivers can now park at everything from truck repair shops to trailer leasing yards, boosting utilization of hours-of-service and reducing idle time.
  • Railways Rewired: From Rivalry to Realignment
    • Over in rail world, tectonic shifts are unfolding.
    • First, a long-standing dispute between BNSF and Union Pacific was finally resolved—clearing the way for international intermodal service from California ports to Salt Lake City, benefitting ocean carriers like MSC and CMA CGM.
    • But the bigger story? Union Pacific is in early talks to acquire Norfolk Southern in a potential $200 billion mega-merger—creating America’s first coast-to-coast rail network.
    • This would dwarf the $31B CP–KCS deal from 2023 and rewrite the U.S. freight map and the history books (this would be the largest merger in freight history).
    • UP brings the West. NS brings the East. Together? Unmatched national reach.
    • But expect regulatory fireworks. CSX, CPKC, BNSF, and shippers are already sharpening their pitchforks.

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