U.S. & China Strike Deal (Updated 11/3)

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Featured Headlines:

Supreme Court Takes Up the Tariff Tree — Will the Branches Hold?

Fee-Fi-Fo-Fum: The Port Fee Truce Has Just Begun

O.N.E. and Done? Rising Sun Meets Rough Seas

Tariff Talk, All in One Place: A High-Speed Tour of the Latest Tradewinds

FWS Rolls Out the Red Carpet for Wildlife Communication

Canal 2.0: Panama Plots Twin Ports

UPS Crash Grounds Key Global Air Hub

Domestic Freight State of the Union

Supreme Court Takes Up the Tariff Tree — Will the Branches Hold?

  • It’s certiorari (cert) granted, briefs filed, and the tariff saga is officially under judicial review!
  • The tariff fight has now climbed all the way to the highest branch of government—the U.S. Supreme Court—which has agreed to hear arguments on whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) truly gives the president power to plant and prune tariffs at will. The reciprocal and fentanyl-related duties still in effect are cases in point.
  • During oral arguments on November 5, 2025, several justices appeared divided—some questioning whether IEEPA was ever intended as a general tariff tool, others suggesting the executive branch may have stretched its statutory roots a little too far into congressional soil. In other words, the Court is weighing whether this is judicial restraint or an arboreal overreach.
  • For now, no gavel has fallen. The tariffs remain alive and well, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) dutifully collecting them. No refunds are expected to ‘leaf’ the Treasury unless the Court decides to prune back the legal stay.
  • A decision on the stay could drop in the coming weeks, but the full constitutional opinion likely won’t be handed down until mid-2026. Depending on how the justices branch out, importers could eventually see a refund pathway—but that’s an appeal for another season.
  • Until then, importers (and Customs brokers) are stuck in judicial limbo—still paying duties, tracking liquidation dates, and waiting to see which way the Supreme Court’s winds of precedent will blow. Shapiro will remain in the tariff treehouse, binoculars in hand, watching for any slip opinions—or falling branches.
  • Want to follow every twist and writ on this tariff timeline? Bookmark our Trump’s Trade Tariff Updates page for real-time certiorari-level developments.

Fee-Fi-Fo-Fum: The Port Fee Truce Has Just Begun

  • We smell the calm of diplomacy begun…!
    • After months of maritime mudslinging, the U.S. and China have finally climbed down from their trade beanstalk and agreed to a one-year suspension of port fees, starting Monday.
    • The tit-for-tat charges that once rattled shippers like a giant’s footsteps are now, at least temporarily, silenced.
  • A Truce Made in the Clouds (or Seoul, technically)
    • Forged during last week’s Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea, the agreement promises smoother seas for global trade and a breather for bulk carriers weary of dodging tariff thunderbolts. Still, veterans of this tale know all too well: giants can wake up cranky.
  • The Great Shipping Escape
    • Two of Hong Kong’s maritime heavyweights—Pacific Basin and Seaspan—had already climbed their own corporate vines to Singapore, hoping to escape the fee-fi-fo-fum fury. Their exodus underscored just how towering the tensions had grown.
  • The Magic Scroll (aka the USTR Factsheet)
    • According to the official parchment—er, Fact Sheet—from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), Washington will suspend its Section 301-based port charges on Chinese-linked vessels starting November 10, 2025. In return, Beijing will pause its own maritime countermeasures.
    • (“Mirror, mirror on the wall,” said no one in this story, but you get the idea.)
    • Learn more here: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China [November 1, 2025]
  • More Than Ships Under the Giant’s Boot
    • The fees had reached far beyond Chinese-built hulls—touching vehicle carriers, cargo-handling gear, and even cranes. The suspension offers industry-wide relief, but it also leaves open the all-important question: what happens when the beans run out and America must again grow its own shipbuilding stalk?
  • A Pause; Not a Fairy-Tale Ending
    • Analysts warn this is merely a one-year reprieve—a chance to re-price lanes, re-negotiate contracts, and re-optimize routes (especially between the U.S. West Coast and Gulf/East). Once the magic beans of diplomacy stop sprouting, the trade giants may stir yet again.

O.N.E. and Done? Rising Sun Meets Rough Seas

  • Like Mount Fuji at dawn, Japan’s proudest shipping trio—K Line, MOL, and NYK—once stood tall and serene. But their shared creation, Ocean Network Express (O.N.E.), now faces tremors worthy of an Okinawa earthquake.
  • In Q2, ONE’s revenue dropped 24% to $4.46 billion, and profits plunged 86%—a nosedive faster than a Shinkansen on a downhill run. Even Japan’s famed reliability couldn’t keep this ship perfectly on schedule.
  • The early-2024 Red Sea reroute boom faded faster than cherry blossoms in a spring breeze. Voyages shortened, profits thinned, and the once-rosy glow of emergency detours turned into an all-too-familiar gray Tokyo morning.
  • Add in rising U.S.–China trade tensions, and ONE’s trans-Pacific routes look more like a slow-moving tea ceremony than a smooth container flow. Eastbound volumes fell 2.6%; and westbound a whopping 26.7%. The ships are running lighter—and the optimism, lighter still.
  • Meanwhile, China’s exports to the U.S. plunged $30B year-over-year (YoY), but Beijing is already performing its own economic origami, refolding trade through Vietnam, Hong Kong, and the European Union (EU).
  • O.N.E. has since trimmed its full-year forecast, hoping to keep calm and carry on—even as revenue per box dropped 25%. For now, the carrier needs more than kaizen to stay afloat; it may take a touch of Godzilla-sized resilience to weather the global trade storm.
  • As Sanae Takaichi steps in as Japan’s first female president, perhaps she’ll inspire a bit of samurai spirit across Japan Inc.—a reminder that even when the seas shake, the Land of the Rising Sun always finds its balance.

Tariff Talk, All in One Place: A High-Speed Tour of the Latest Tradewinds

  • Tariff Adjustments Now Confirmed in Latest U.S.-China Trade Deal (11/4/25)
    • Following President Trump’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in Busan, the White House has now officially published an Executive Order confirming the tariff adjustments outlined in the recent U.S.–China economic arrangement. Here’s what’s now official:
      • The Executive Order (EO), “Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates,” formally reduces the fentanyl-related tariff rate from 20% to 10%, effective November 10, 2025.
      • The U.S. will maintain a 10% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports while suspending further increases until November 10, 2026.
      • Section 301 tariff exclusions have been extended through November 2026, providing importers continued relief.
    • In return, China has confirmed key commitments under the same arrangement:
      • Suspension of export restrictions on rare-earth minerals, gallium, germanium, graphite, and other critical inputs used in U.S. manufacturing.
      • Resumption of large-scale purchases of U.S. agricultural goods (including soybeans, sorghum, and hardwood logs).
      • Removal of retaliatory tariffs and sanctions targeting U.S. agricultural, logistics, and semiconductor sectors.
      • Continued diplomatic engagement, with President Trump set to visit China in April 2026 and President Xi expected to visit the U.S. later next year.
    • Both sides also confirmed the suspension of planned reciprocal port fees while negotiations continue on a broader maritime and logistics framework.
    • What does this mean for importers?
      • For shipments arriving into the United States on or after November 10, the IEEPA Fentanyl 20% tariff will be reduced to 10%.
      • All other tariffs specific to China will remain in place; meaning the reciprocal tariff rate will remain at 10% and all applicable Section 301 duties will remain in place.
      • Any Section 301 exclusions still active have been extended to November 2026.
    • Related Guidance:
  • Framework Deal Reached; Other Markets Impacted (10/27/25)
  • Talks with Canada Collapse (10/24/25)
    • President Trump called an end to trade negotiations with Canada, citing escalating tensions after a Canadian political ad criticized tariffs using archived Ronald Reagan audio.
    • This announcement arrived days before both nations were scheduled to attend regional trade talks in Malaysia—no bilateral meeting has been confirmed since.
  • Need help navigating tariff exclusions, duty increases, or shifting trade agreements? Shapiro’s compliance and trade teams are closely tracking every development—so you don’t have to. From Section 301 exclusions to tariff planning and landed cost forecasting, we’re here to help importers and exporters stay one step ahead. Reach out to [email protected] for support today!

FWS Rolls Out the Red Carpet for Wildlife Communication

  • The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is officially rolling out the red carpet for the trade community with its newest communication channel: an email Listserv dedicated to import/export updates.
  • This Listserv will now act as FWS’s primary platform for official notices and Public Bulletins, replacing ad-hoc messaging and giving trade professionals a centralized source for wildlife-related compliance updates.
  • Importers, exporters, brokers, and anyone dealing with wildlife or wildlife-derived products can subscribe to stay in the loop on enforcement actions, documentation changes, port procedures, and policy updates.
  • Want your VIP pass? Sign up for the mailing list here:
    https://www.fws.gov/staff-profile/office-law-enforcement-public-bulletin-mailing-list
  • Please note: Due to the ongoing federal funding lapse, the website may not be updated in real time, and inquiries or submissions may not receive responses until operations fully resume.
  • No paparazzi, just paperwork. If your cargo includes wildlife, animal products, or CITES-regulated goods, now’s the time to get on the list and stay front-row ready.

Canal 2.0: Panama Plots Twin Ports

  • The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) has kicked off talks with the maritime big leagues to scout partners for new port terminals on both ends of the canal.
  • Modeled after its gas-pipeline playbook, the Authority’s “let’s-talk-business” roundtable drew everyone from APM Terminals and PSA to the Port of Houston, signaling that Panama’s looking for serious hardware, not wishful docking.
  • A market and feasibility study now sets sail, with a full tender expected next year and a target of boosting throughput by a cool five million TEUs annually.
  • President José Raúl Mulino has hinted the government could reclaim control if Hutchison’s concession sinks in court.

UPS Crash Grounds Key Global Air Hub

  • Louisville, Kentucky was rocked this week when a UPS cargo plane exploded just after takeoff, killing 12 (including nine in local buildings) and halting operations at the company’s massive Worldport hub, the beating heart of its global air network.
  • The MD-11F freighter, bound for Honolulu, reportedly lost an engine seconds after lifting off from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport, crashing into an industrial zone and igniting a half-mile fireball that left nearby businesses scorched.
  • More than 200 first responders swarmed the scene as flames, debris, and packages rained down—turning a quiet Tuesday evening into a logistics nightmare.
  • The shutdown of Worldport, which normally handles 300+ flights and millions of parcels a day, rippled across the global supply chain and is expected to cause multi-day shipping delays just as the holiday peak ramps up.
  • The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recovered both black boxes and is zeroing in on early signs of engine detachment and wing fire—with the aircraft’s heavy Hawaiian fuel load intensifying the inferno.
  • Analysts warn the tragedy underscores how fragile “just-in-time” air logistics can be. One spark at a single hub can ripple from Kentucky to Kuala Lumpur.

Domestic Freight State of the Union

  • Courtroom Cargo
    • The trucking world is bracing for a Supreme Court showdown as Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II questions how far federal law shields freight brokers from liability.
    • The Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act (FAAAA), meant to unify interstate trucking rules, now finds itself split by circuit courts over whether states can sue brokers under “safety exceptions.”
    • The 6th and 9th Circuits say yes; the 7th and 11th say no.
    • The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Retail Federation (NRF) are siding with brokers, arguing they can’t be held responsible for every carrier’s hiring history.
    • With SCOTUS stepping in, the freight world waits to see if “uniformity” means freedom from lawsuits or freedom to litigate forever.
  • License to Drive… Maybe
    • The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) wants Congress to lock in stricter training, licensing, and carrier audits; and they’re not fans of teen truckers joining the ranks.
    • That 18-to-20-year-old pilot program born from the 2022 infrastructure law still makes veteran drivers uneasy.
    • The Department of Transportation (DOT) has also stepped-up enforcement of English-language standards and curbed foreign driver visas, tightening an already strained driver market.
    • The result? Freight capacity’s feeling the squeeze, and some shippers are wondering if the next shortage won’t be containers—it’ll be qualified humans.
  • The Transcontinental Tug-of-War
    • All eyes are on the rails as Union Pacific (UP) preps a 4,000-page love letter to regulators to convince them it should marry Norfolk Southern (NS).
    • UP’s aiming to file with the Surface Transportation Board by December 1st, touting efficiency gains and greener roads by taking “thousands of trucks off highways.”
    • Backers include the powerful SMART-TD rail union, but rivals aren’t all aboard. BNSF warns the merger could derail competition, wiping out 300 intermodal lanes and dissolving joint routes like BNSF–NS and UP–CSX.
    • Shippers fear fewer choices and higher rates—proof that in rail politics, one carrier’s synergy is another’s traffic jam.
  • Rails on the Rise Down South
    • Meanwhile, Canadian Pacific Kansas City and CSX are quietly redrawing the Gulf Coast map.
    • Their track-upgrade project in Alabama and Mississippi, originally green-lit in 2024, is set to wrap-up early next year.
    • Anchored by Schneider National’s Southeast Mexico Express, the route could soon connect Mexico → Atlanta → Dallas, giving trucks a serious run for their diesel.
    • BNSF and CSX are even testing new coast-to-coast overlays from California to Charlotte and Jacksonville, adding Dallas to the mix.

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