Featured Headlines:
Transpac Poker: Carriers Ain’t Fueling Around—But Are They Bluffing?
And the Oscar Goes to Panama…Finally!
Roger, Roger: Air Cargo is Cleared for Chaos
CAPE Crusaders: The IEEPA Refund Saga Continues
The SAFE Act Locks in New Rules for Importers
Not Strait to the Plate: It’s the Gas, Gas, Gas!
US Domestic Is No “Vacation” … Or Is It?!
Transpac Poker: Carriers Ain’t Fueling Around—But Are They Bluffing?
- Supply: Capacity Is Sitting at the Table… and Checking
- Despite geopolitical noise around the Strait of Hormuz, transpacific capacity is holding steady—no one’s folding just yet.
- Blank sailings are technically in play, but barely—under 5% overall and closer to 1% in the back half of March.
- Translation: the ships are dealt in and seated… they’re just waiting for a stronger hand of cargo to justify raising the stakes.
- Demand: A Few Chips Back on the Table, But No All-In Moves
- March has brought a modest rebound, with West Coast load factors starting to edge upward.
- The East Coast, however, still feels like a quiet table—plenty of open seats, not enough players buying in.
- Carriers are trying to build the pot, but shippers aren’t exactly chasing—keeping the game slow and the stakes low.
- Rates: A Raise That Keeps Getting Called (or Ignored)
- After a short-lived rate bump early in March, carriers are once again attempting to push increases.
- The problem? Many have already extended pricing into late March—effectively checking after trying to raise.
- Meanwhile, BCO contracts are getting dealt behind the scenes, with major retailers locking in rates 5–15% below last year—hardly a signal that the table’s about to heat up.
- Fuel and Surcharges: The Wild Card on the Table
- Fuel is the wildcard hand right now. VLSFO prices have nearly doubled since early March, prompting carriers to float Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) for April.
- But the play feels hesitant. Between regulatory scrutiny out of China and internal debate, the EFS is starting to look less like a bold raise… and more like a disguised chip shuffle into base rates.
- In poker terms: it’s unclear whether this is a real move—or just table theater.
- Outlook: Waiting for Someone to Push the Pot
- With March 20 increases unlikely to stick, attention is already shifting to April 1 as the next meaningful hand.
- Load factors should continue improving, potentially giving carriers the confidence to finally push chips forward—especially with May 1 contracts looming.
- Until then, the market feels like a table full of players checking around… circling, watching, and waiting for someone to make the first real move or mistake!
And the Oscar Goes to Panama…Finally!
- While the Strait of Hormuz dominates headlines for all the wrong reasons, the Panama Canal is quietly stepping into the spotlight like a seasoned actress who’s waited years for this exact role—and delivers a flawless performance the moment the camera rolls.
- Freight, of course, doesn’t stop when a major artery tightens—it adapts. And increasingly, that adaptation is rerouting through Panama, where the timing could not be more cinematic. An unusually wet dry season (still a phrase in need of its own agent) has restored water levels just as global shipping lanes are being stress-tested.
- Often described as a “water elevator,” the Canal is now operating with award-winning precision, moving roughly 40 to 41 ships per day—well above its typical baseline of 36. Canal officials note that 38 transits per day is the sustainable pace, but even that feels like a scene-stealing performance when the global system is hungry for capacity.
- Of course, no Oscar-worthy moment is complete without a bit of backstage drama. Current reports suggest about 100 vessels waiting on the Pacific side, with another 50 lined up in the Caribbean. Which raises the inevitable question: does a “Panama Canal Congestion Fee” make a surprise cameo? At 11,243 to 1 odds, we wouldn’t call it a lock—but we also wouldn’t skip the final act.
- And now, at center stage, Panama delivers its acceptance speech: “You like me. Right now… you really like me.”
- Not by chance, but by preparation. Not by spotlight, but by readiness.
- In the end, Panama isn’t stealing the show—it’s proving it was always meant to headline.
Roger, Roger: Air Cargo is Cleared for Chaos
- Ocean freight may dominate the headlines, but when disruption hits, airfreight is where the shock shows up first—and right now, it’s arriving fast, climbing steeply, and with just enough instability to make everyone grip the armrest.
- As Airplane! so famously warned us: “Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit…”—and for air cargo, you can take your pick: stable pricing, predictable routings, or reasonably priced jet fuel.
- Since the escalation of tensions involving Iran, airfreight rates have surged sharply, with some lanes jumping as much as 70%. South Asia to Europe pricing has climbed from roughly $2.57/kg to $4.37/kg, while Hong Kong to Europe is now pushing beyond $5.15/kg.
- Surely that’s an overreaction?
- We are serious… and don’t call me Shirley.
- The disruption is being driven by a perfect storm of capacity constraints. Qatar Airways has scaled back operations through Doha, while Emirates and Etihad Airways continue operating at reduced capacity amid ongoing regional instability. These hubs are critical connective tissue for Asia–Europe cargo flows—and right now, that system is flying… but not exactly on instruments.
- Shippers are already adapting, though none of the alternatives come cheap. Sea-air routings via the Maldives, truck-air combinations through Central Asia, and hybrid solutions through Southeast Asia and the US West Coast are all in play.
- Translation? “It’s a big pretty white plane…”—it just might take three countries, two modes, and a small fortune to get there.
- For now, the seatbelt sign remains firmly on. The question is not whether the market will adjust—it always does—but how much turbulence it will endure before leveling off.
- Because at the moment, everyone in the supply chain is asking the same thing:
- “We have clearance, Clarence?”
CAPE Crusaders: The IEEPA Refund Saga Continues
- Last week’s Court of International Trade ruling made quite the entrance—swift, dramatic, and seemingly decisive. But as Batman fans know, the entrance is the easy part. The real work begins after the cape settles.
- With IEEPA tariffs ruled invalid, the question has shifted from “are refunds coming?” to “how does this actually work?”—and that’s where things get less cinematic and more… bureaucratic.
- Enter CBP’s new CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) module in ACE. It’s not exactly the Dark Knight swooping over Gotham—but it is the first real system designed to handle what could be a massive volume of refund claims.
- Think less Batman, more Lucius Fox quietly making the whole operation possible.
- Background here: CIT & CBP Announce New CAPE System for IEEPA Refunds
- The plot, however, is far from resolved. The government’s appeal is still a possibility, and a potential stay from the Federal Circuit could still play the role of our favorite chaos agent—the Joker.
- Meanwhile, key questions remain:
- Who qualifies (especially non-plaintiffs)?
- What documentation will be required?
- How long will this take?
- CBP has started to fill in some gaps through guidance and FAQs, reinforcing CAPE as the likely hub for refunds—but “likely” is doing some heavy lifting.
- More detail: IEEPA Refunds – CAPE Module in ACE
- Official FAQs: International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Frequently Asked Questions
- So where does that leave us? The ruling stands (for now). A process is emerging. And both the legal and operational frameworks are still evolving in parallel.
- In other words: the Bat-Signal is lit… but we’re not at the final scene yet.
- What importers should do now:
- This isn’t victory lap territory—it’s strategy time:
- Confirm ACE readiness
- Identify impacted entries
- Evaluate protective actions based on exposure
- Because even when Batman’s on the way, smart operators don’t wait for that rescue!
- We are continuing to track every twist in this storyline on our tariff updates page here: Trump’s Trade Tariff Updates
- And if you need help navigating what comes next, our tariff and compliance team is ready to swoop in. Whether it’s CAPE submissions, refund strategy, or just making sense of the plot, reach out to [email protected]—the Shap-Heroes are here to help save the day (or at least your duty spend).
The SAFE Act Locks in New Rules for Importers
- Congress is taking a closer look at who holds the keys to U.S. imports. On March 9, 2026, lawmakers introduced the Securing Accountability in Foreign Entries Act—or the SAFE Act.
- (And yes… had this been introduced at the United Nations, we might be talking about the UNSAFE Act… but we’ll stick with the version currently on the floor.)
- At its core, the SAFE Act would amend the Tariff Act of 1930 to require importers of record (IORs) to maintain a clearer U.S. nexus—no more loosely guarded entry points.
- Today, foreign entities can act as the importer of record without a U.S. presence, provided they secure a CBP importer number, post bond, and designate a U.S. agent.
- The SAFE Act would tighten that structure, limiting IOR eligibility to:
- U.S. citizens or permanent residents, or entities with a physical U.S. presence and qualifying ownership;
- Affiliates of established U.S. companies that meet operational thresholds and assume liability; or
- Certain foreign companies (currently Canada and Australia), with room for expansion based on reciprocity.
- It also reinforces the financial side of the lockbox:
- Continuous bonds would generally require at least $100,000 in coverage; and
- Duties would need to be paid from verified U.S. bank accounts, limiting third-party payments.
- If passed, CBP would have one year to issue regulations outlining how these requirements would be enforced and what penalties may apply.
- In short, the SAFE Act is designed to tighten the hinges on importer accountability, making sure the party listed as importer of record is actually inside the vault, not just holding a key from afar.
- You can review the full bill text here.
Not Strait to the Plate: It’s the Gas, Gas, Gas!
- If you’ve been following developments in the Strait of Hormuz, you already know it is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that it is also a critical link in the global food chain—and that connection is now starting to hit much closer to home.
- Roughly 30% of global fertilizer inputs move through Hormuz, making it a key artery not just for fuel, but for agricultural production. When that flow tightens, the impact does not stay neatly contained within the energy sector—it works its way outward, eventually landing on farms, and ultimately, on grocery shelves.
- This is less a scoop about poop; it is all about the … well, the gas. Natural gas is the crucial feedstock for creating the ammonia needed to make the best fertilizers.
- The American Farm Bureau Federation has been quick to highlight this risk, urging Washington to consider a broad set of mitigation measures, including naval escorts for fertilizer shipments, Jones Act waivers for domestic fuel transport, temporary duty relief, and expanded capacity across ports, rail, and barge networks. In short: every available lever, and preferably sooner rather than later.
- Leading that message is Zippy Duvall—a name that feels almost too on-the-nose for a logistics newsletter—who has pointed out that U.S. farmers were already dealing with a “generational decline in farm income” before this disruption entered the picture. This is not a sector with much cushion left to absorb additional shocks.
- The timing, of course, is less than ideal. Planting season does not wait for geopolitical clarity, and fertilizer availability is not something that can be easily improvised at the last minute. The result is a situation where global shipping dynamics are directly influencing domestic food production in real time.
- Put simply: what starts in a narrow strait halfway around the world does not stay there. It moves—through supply chains, through cost structures, and eventually onto the plate (or not in this case). And right now, that journey is getting more expensive by the mile.
US Domestic Is No “Vacation” … Or Is It?!
- The U.S. trucking market loaded up the Family Truckster, triple-checked the atlas like it was 1983, and confidently announced: “This is it—the open highway phase.” Clark-level optimism. Unshakeable. Delusional. Beautiful.
- Five minutes later, we’ve missed the exit for “Stable Pricing,” the GPS is aggressively chirping “recalculating…,” and somehow we’re barreling down a frontage road labeled “Fuel Apocalypse Parkway—Last Exit Before Regret.”
- Naturally, first stop: a gas station that feels less like a pit stop and more like a low-budget hostage negotiation. Diesel has blown past $5 per gallon, and the price boards are changing so fast they look like slot machines hitting the “YOU LOSE” jackpot.
- And here’s the fun part—costs haven’t even fully landed yet. These stations are pre-gaming the crisis like it’s a tailgate for economic doom. They’re all selling Panic Premium because… just because.
- Trucking companies have responded exactly how you’d expect …after a shot of existential dread, they’re grabbing that highly emotionally chaser.
- Fuel surcharges are getting slapped on faster than a toddler running from a nap or a sensible dog sprinting from the Griswold’s (depending on your National Lampoon exposure).
- These surcharges are reactive, preemptive, aggressive, and delivered with the calm restraint of Clark Griswold discovering the Grand Canyon is closed for “maintenance.”
- Meanwhile, truck brokers have fully embraced their role as backseat drivers who suddenly want to renegotiate ticket prices.
- Loads locked in back in January? “Errrrr, what if we… just didn’t?”—this followed by a lot of uncomfortable silence and passive-aggressive map folding.
- Some are walking away entirely unless rates get a refresh, turning what looked like a smooth cruise into a string of roadside “we need to talk” pit stops.
- Capacity is tightening like the backseat after eight hours, no stops, and one sibling who absolutely refuses to acknowledge the concept of personal space.
- Winter storms already shoved parts of the network into the logistical equivalent of a frosty roadside ditch with one spinning tire and zero dignity.
- Add stricter enforcement on non-domiciled drivers and English proficiency rules, and suddenly the driver pool feels like a 2 a.m. rest stop: dim lighting, limited options, and a creeping sense you shouldn’t have stopped here.
- Up in Canada, regulators have gone full highway patrol meets TSA. Papers, permits, documentation—maybe a quick check of your glove compartment just for fun.
- Holy Mackerel, do ya think the Canuckian fuzz is “oat and aboot” due to the 51st state talk, eh?! Gosh, do ya?!
- Rail, which was supposed to be the scenic bypass, has devolved into a full-on parking lot standoff. The dispute over train lengths on the Meridian Speedway—8,500 feet vs. 11,000—is basically two drivers blocking all lanes while arguing whose turn it is, both refusing to move out of sheer principle and spite.
- Freight is technically moving… in the same way the Griswolds technically “made progress” while dragging a deceased dog behind the car. Yes, forward motion exists. No, no one feels good about it.
- Put it all together, and this market isn’t just a road trip—it’s the moment you realize Walley World is closed, your wallet is empty, your map is useless, and somehow you’re still being charged for parking.
