Featured Headlines:
CNY Sends Rates Running Before the Holidays
Venezuela’s Ports Are Still Open, But the Plumbing’s Shot
Tariffs Take a Seat (and a Pasta Break)
Don’t Get Caught in the Web: CBP Spins Up Forced Labor Portal Training
Sometimes the Fastest Way to Europe…Is Through a Freezer
Every Parcel Pays Now: The End of De Minimis
Rail, Road & What's Moving (and What Isn't)
CNY Sends Rates Running Before the Holidays
- Asia’s container rates have laced up their shoes and hit the road again. After a sluggish warm-up, trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe prices are back on the treadmill, quickening their cadence as shippers sprint to beat Lunar New Year (LNY) factory shutdowns.
- As every runner knows, nobody wants to be caught flat-footed at the starting line—or worse, left jogging alone after the pack has surged ahead.
- On the Europe leg of the course, rates are clearly finding their stride. Asia–Europe prices climbed to $2,742 per FEU, a solid 12% kick since mid-month, while Asia–Mediterranean rates jogged up another 4% to roughly $4,000 per FEU—their fastest pace since early July.
- It’s less a leisurely jog and more a tempo run, with demand settling into a rhythm that feels purposeful rather than panicked.
- What’s driving this renewed pace? A combination of early pre-holiday demand and Red Sea diversions that have stretched lead times like tired hamstrings. With the Suez shortcut still largely off-limits, shippers are starting their race earlier than usual, wary of hitting the wall if they wait too long.
- As Oprah once put it, “Running is the greatest metaphor for life—you get out of it what you put into it,” and right now, shippers are putting in the miles early.
- Carriers, meanwhile, are not exactly racing ahead. They’re pacing themselves, keenly aware that a full return to the Red Sea–Suez route could suddenly dump as many as 2 million TEUs back into the market.
- That kind of capacity surge would be less a victory lap and more a painful cramp—undoing weeks of hard-earned progress in a single misstep.
- Across the Pacific, the race looks more like interval training. Thanks to tariff front-loading, the pace is uneven but still trending forward. West Coast rates are up 9% to $2,145 per FEU, while East Coast prices posted a stronger 15% gain to $3,364. (Shapiro customers pay less, of course!)
- It’s choppy, breathless running—short bursts, brief recoveries, and plenty of second-guessing about whether to push harder or conserve energy.
- For now, the message is classic runner wisdom: run your own race, but don’t miss the gun. With LNY approaching fast, rates are moving not because anyone loves the pain—but because, as runners know all too well, tough runs and tough markets don’t last!
Air Cargo’s Fried 2025!
- If airfreight in 2025 had a smell, it wouldn’t be fresh bread or jet fuel—it would be overworked oil. Not burned, exactly. Just… pan-fried and left on the heat a little too long.
- This was a year of fried nerves, fried expectations, and French-fried optimism, as the global air cargo sector slogged through pressure, unpredictability, and the kind of incremental progress that feels more like chewing fried dough than biting into a hot meal.
- Capacity stabilized. Networks recalibrated. But nobody felt full.
- Instead of bold menu changes, the industry kept reheating leftovers—stir-fried compliance rules, deep-fried congestion at major gateways, and a side of rising cargo theft.
- Forwarders spent more time reacting than planning, flipping shipments like eggs in a crowded pan.
- Brandon Fried (nowwww the title makes sense!), Executive Director of the Airforwarders Association, summed it up perfectly. His phrase for 2025 was “adjustment while moving.”
- Translation? Cooking chicken-fried steak while the stove slides across the kitchen.
- “Demand was uneven. Compliance burdens jumped. Freighter networks shifted. Tariff policy stayed half-baked,” Fried explained. “It wasn’t a bad year—but it was grinding.”
- In other words: country-fried, not Kentucky Fried. No secret herbs. No crunch.
- Enter Max Fried in relief (yes, THAT Max Fried… and yes he is usually a starter for the legendary New York Yankees!).
- If 2025 were a baseball game, it wasn’t a slugfest—it was Max Fried on the mound, snapping off curveballs all year long. Every time forwarders thought a fastball was coming—stable demand, predictable policy—another curve dropped out of the zone.
- Tariffs bent late. Regulations broke downward. Capacity recovered… then tailed off. You could hear the industry collectively mutter: “That pitch was filthy.”
- “Forwarders need better tools—data visibility, airport throughput, carrier coordination,” Fried (Brandon, not Max!) said.
- Because right now, the kitchen is loud, the tickets are smudged, and nobody’s sure which order belongs to which pallet.
Venezuela’s Ports Are Still Open, But the Plumbing’s Shot
- Venezuela’s ports are increasingly being described as the pipes behind the walls: still carrying flow, still technically functional, but creaking, corroded, and overdue for a professional visit from someone with a wrench and a budget.
- A U.S. maritime executive likened years of deferred maintenance to rust slowly eating away at the system—no ideology required, just physics and time.
- As former Federal Maritime Commission chairman Louis Sola put it, any plan to rebuild Venezuela has to run through the ports. Unfortunately, what used to be a quick port turn—four to five hours—now resembles a slow leak that turns into a puddle: four to five days, depending on which valve sticks.
- Of Venezuela’s roughly 25 ports, only about six can still handle meaningful container operations.
- La Guaira and Puerto Cabello remain the main supply lines, acting like the last two pipes with decent water pressure while the rest of the house waits for new fittings.
- Major carriers including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, and Seaboard Marine continue feeder services. Operators stress that the system is not backed up entirely—cargo is still moving, and delays remain manageable—suggesting the sink drains at least, even if it gurgles ominously while doing so.
- Following the removal of Nicolás Maduro and the installation of an interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, attention has shifted from day-to-day operations to what’s sitting in the basement: assets seized under the prior regime and questions over who holds the keys to the shutoff valves.
- At the center of the dispute is state-owned Bolivariana de Puertos and former concession holder Pan American Port Operator LTD Corp. S.A., which had been paying roughly $100 million annually.
- The company is now exploring options to reclaim its investment—effectively asking whether it paid for a full bathroom remodel, only to be left holding the receipt when the water was turned off.
Tariffs Take a Seat (and a Pasta Break)
- In a move that surprised exactly no one who’s been watching tariff policy zig instead of zag, the administration has decided to pump the brakes on some planned duty hikes—giving certain imports a temporary reprieve.
- Furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities were all on track for higher tariffs starting January 1, 2026, including jumps to 30% on upholstered furniture and 50% on cabinets/vanities. Those increases are now delayed for one year, keeping duties at the current 25% rate through 2026.
- The delay appears tied to ongoing trade discussions, with officials signaling they’d rather keep negotiations moving than immediately rearrange the global furniture aisle.
- Meanwhile, in the “not all carbs are created equal” category, the government has also scaled back proposed anti-dumping duties on Italian pasta—dialing rates down significantly from the eye-watering levels floated earlier in the process.
- Updated, producer-specific pasta rates now land far lower than initially expected, with final determinations anticipated in March, much to the relief of importers who prefer their margins al dente.
- Taken together, these moves reinforce a familiar theme: tariff policy remains fluid, timelines can shift quickly, and today’s hard line may become tomorrow’s carve-out.
- For importers, the takeaway is simple—don’t assume this year’s duties are set in stone and keep a close eye on how negotiations (and menus) continue to evolve.
Don’t Get Caught in the Web: CBP Spins Up Forced Labor Portal Training
- CBP is weaving a new strand into its enforcement toolkit with the launch of the Forced Labor Portal in January 2026—and they’re hosting a series of webinars to help users navigate the web smoothly.
- Live portal training sessions will be held via webinar on the following dates:
- Tuesday, January 13 at 11:00 a.m.
- Wednesday, January 14 at 1:00 p.m.
- Thursday, January 15 at 1:00 p.m.
- These sessions will walk users through how to submit and manage key requests within the portal, including:
- Withhold Release Order (WRO) and Finding admissibility reviews
- Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) applicability reviews
- UFLPA exception requests
- Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) exception requests
- Think of this as a guided crawl through the portal—designed to help importers avoid sticky situations when responding to forced labor enforcement actions.
- Registration links for each webinar can be found here: CSMS # 67297933 – Forced Labor Portal Training Webinars
- And if questions start popping up as you work through the portal, Shapiro’s compliance team is always here to help you untangle the details and prepare strong, well-documented submissions. It’s one of our many Spidey skills! Contact us at [email protected] today!
Sometimes the Fastest Way to Europe…Is Through a Freezer
- South Korea is cracking open the deep freeze and eyeing a shortcut that looks less like the Suez and more like Santa’s daily commute.
- Seoul just put the Arctic on the menu, announcing its first-ever container ship trial through the Northern Sea Route—where sea ice replaces sand dunes and GPS competes with drifting icebergs.
- The pilot run is scheduled for September, the Arctic’s version of “shorts weather”—when glaciers loosen their grip, the tundra exhales briefly, and ships can thread the needle between ice floes without becoming a popsicle.
- The plan: send a 3,000 TEU containership from Busan to Rotterdam through the top of the world.
- Why brave the polar night? Because this route slashes roughly 10 days and 7,000 kilometers off the traditional Suez voyage—a near 30% cut in time and distance, proving that sometimes the shortest line between two ports runs straight past the North Pole. Ho ho ho, indeed.
- It doesn’t hurt that one trades pirates for walruses either!
- Korea isn’t totally new to the cold. It’s already sent bulk carriers to Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, home to permafrost, cuddly polar bears, and LNG projects that laugh at mild winters. But this marks its first containerized leap into Arctic waters.
- Most of the route glides through Russian-controlled seas, meaning Moscow plays icebreaker and gatekeeper. Korea still needs permission—while carefully skating around Western sanctions.
- The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries says it’ll “find a way to address both issues,” which sounds easier said than done when geopolitics are as slippery as black ice.
- Of course, the Arctic doesn’t come cheap. Insurance premiums run higher than the aurora borealis, and a government study estimates an extra $435,000 per voyage for a 5,000 TEU ship—essentially a frost tax for sailing through Santa’s backyard instead of the Suez Canal.
- Bottom line: this isn’t just a trade lane—it’s a climate, cost, and control experiment unfolding across glaciers, narwhal waters, and melting permafrost. If it works, Europe-bound cargo may soon arrive having taken a detour past the elves’ workshop.
Every Parcel Pays Now: The End of De Minimis
- The free ride for small parcels is ending. Global Customs reform is dismantling de minimis regimes and replacing them with data-heavy enforcement, reshaping cross-border e-commerce and air cargo just as 2026 approaches.
- Low value no longer means low scrutiny. Governments across the US, EU, UK, Australia and Asia are rolling back exemptions, monetizing relief, and demanding pre-arrival data.
- Air cargo is feeling the squeeze first. Higher tariffs, per-item fees and expanding documentation are eroding airfreight’s speed advantage, pushing some high-growth eCommerce flows toward ocean and intermodal alternatives.
- PLACI regimes are rewriting the timeline. Systems like ICS2 in the EU, ACAS in the US, and similar programs in Canada and the UAE require item-level data before loading, turning compliance into a frontline commercial function.
- Europe is putting a price tag on it. From July 2026, the European Union will impose a €3 duty per low-value item, while New Zealand and others move toward per-item levy models.
- As a result, airlines are rethinking freighter capacity, fulfilment is shifting toward regional inventory pooling, and shippers are near-shoring to avoid Customs friction.
Rail, Road & What's Moving (and What Isn't)
- Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern: Merger Meets Resistance
- Two major rail unions, BLET and BMWED, have come out against Union Pacific’s (UP) proposed $85B acquisition of Norfolk Southern, just ahead of the deal’s formal regulatory review.
- Union leaders say the opposition follows months of worker consultations and negotiations with UP CEO Jim Vena, while UP counters that the merger offers “unprecedented” growth and has backing from five other unions.
- UP has now filed with the Surface Transportation Board, arguing the deal would divert nearly 2 million truck moves annually and unlock faster single-line intermodal corridors.
- Truckload: The Recovery That Keeps Getting Pushed Back
- The US truckload downturn is now expected to persist into Q1 2026, with analysts increasingly pointing to late 2026 or 2027 as the window for a real rate recovery.
- Manufacturing softness, tariff uncertainty and uneven import demand have undercut earlier hopes for a 2025 rebound.
- Despite years of predictions, fleet exits have slowed sharply: just 1,500 authorities revoked in the first nine months of 2025.
- Ports & Tech: New Jersey Tries Hydrogen Drayage
- New Jersey is investing $13M to test hydrogen-powered drayage trucks at the Port Newark Container Terminal, targeting short-haul container moves.
- The project is led by Rutgers University with support from the New Jersey Economic Development Authority and partners including Hyundai Motor Co.
- Truck testing is expected to begin in early 2026, positioning the port as a proving ground for next-generation, lower-emission drayage, at least over very short distances.
