Featured Headlines:
Dock and Awe: China's Global 'Port Authority'
Air Cargo 2025: A Wing and a Prayer
Tariffs Shift into High Gear for Trucks & Parts
Deal or No Deal: Trump Teases 155% Tariffs on China
Neither Snow nor Rain nor Bureaucratic Pain…The Mailman Delivers Again!
From Matryoshkas to Maritime Mischief: Europe Unpacks Russia's Shadow Fleet
How U.S. Freight Is Truckin', Railin', and Re-Routing
Dock and Awe: China's Global 'Port Authority'
- Anchors Aweigh: The Grand Maritime Makeover
- For twenty years, China has quietly built a global port empire of more than 90 deep-water terminals in 50-plus countries, including 34 of the 100 busiest.
- From Europe’s fifth-largest port to Africa’s busiest hubs, Chinese cranes now swing containers on nearly every coastline that matters.
- PwC figures suggest each US dollar that China invests in African ports nets $13 in trade—an ROI that would make even a pirate blush. (Argh, matey!)
- Strategic Moorings: The Other Side of the Dock
- Ports don’t just move cargo—they move influence. Many lie near global choke points, giving Beijing visibility into the world’s shipping arteries.
- U.S. officials mutter that these “commercial” hubs could someday turn into naval pit stops; Djibouti’s “logistics base” says hello and blows a kiss!
- China, for its part, insists it’s merely keeping trade flowing—and that America’s real concern is losing steering control of the global helm.
- Trump Waves: Canal Zone Showdown
- Enter Donald Trump, again with a trade wind in his hair. He’s vowed to pry China’s fingers off global shipping lanes, starting with two ports bracketing the Panama Canal.
- He even urged Panama to rescind CK Hutchison’s port concessions—the same ones China sees as crucial canal-control points.
- Nothing like a narrow waterway to widen political divides.
- Deal or No Deal: The Hutchison Hullabaloo
- In March 2025, CK Hutchison agreed to negotiate a $23 billion sale of 43 ports to a BlackRock-MSC consortium—a logistical lovechild of Wall Street and the Mediterranean.
- Beijing balked. Behind the scenes, officials told Li Ka-shing to make room for a “strategic investor”—namely COSCO, China’s state-linked shipping titan.
- COSCO is now angling for veto rights and a stake big enough to keep its hand on the tiller, ensuring Chinese interests stay in the cargo mix.
- Harboring the Future: Where the Tide Now Stands
- The BlackRock-MSC exclusivity period lapsed in July 2025, leaving the consortium to re-rig the ownership sails to satisfy Beijing (and wary Western regulators).
- As of October 2025, the deal remains adrift—“still a reasonable chance,” say Hutchison execs—but far from port.
- One thing’s certain: with COSCO circling and Washington watching, China’s command of the world’s docks isn’t sinking anytime soon.
Air Cargo 2025: A Wing and a Prayer
- Global demand is climbing—if not soaring.
- 2025 tonnage is up roughly 3–5% year-over-year (YoY) through September, with momentum still rising into October.
- The flight path is steady, and crucially, still upward.
- Passenger flying has fully restored belly capacity worldwide.
- Load factors hover in the mid-40s, as cargo once again battles baggage for space.
- Rates are level at cruising altitude—flat to slightly lower YoY, with Asia–Europe buoyant and transpacific still soft.
- U.S. market: grounded by de-minimis duties.
- Policy shifts clipped the wings of small-parcel air trade.
- Lower duty-free thresholds erased the cushion for millions of e-commerce parcels.
- Once duties and compliance costs hit, many China-to-U.S. shipments simply fell out of the sky.
- Fewer express parcels mean less belly and freighter use—sending airlines flocking toward Europe.
- More Customs entries, slower clearances (except with Shapiro!), and higher fees all add drag.
- Why global rates look flat while Asia–Europe’s flying high.
- Mix matters: Asia–Europe gains can’t offset the shrinking, high-priced transpacific share.
- Every restored passenger flight adds low-cost capacity.
- Even “up” can look level from 30,000 feet in a market this well-supplied.
- Freighters vs. bellies—dual engines of lift.
- Passenger traffic is nearly back to pre-2020 highs, bringing affordable belly space with it.
- Good for shippers, less so for yield managers.
- Bellies keep rates honest; freighters keep schedules steady.
- Final approach—the outlook.
- 2025’s story isn’t turbulence or triumph, but rebalancing.
- Asia–Europe hums along; the U.S. stays in a holding pattern.
- Rates remain grounded by capacity, but momentum stays positive—the industry is still flying on a wing and a prayer, with that wing distinctly European.
- Interested in sharing and airing cargo grievances with your current partner? Reach out to our caring Shapiro’s Freight Experts to see how we can help relieve the pressure.
Tariffs Shift into High Gear for Trucks & Parts
- The White House issued a proclamation on October 13, 2025, placing 25% extra duties on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) and specified MHDV parts, and 10% duties on buses and similar models, all effective November 1, 2025.
- For goods qualifying under the USMCA, the duty may be applied only to the non-U.S. content portion once the documentation process is published; knock-down kits remain fully subject to the duty.
- Manufacturers assembling vehicles or engines in the U.S. may apply for a 3.75% import-adjustment offset for parts assembled between 2025 and 2030, subject to US Department of Commerce and Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) approval.
- Entries found misrepresenting U.S. content could face the full 25% duty on the entire vehicle value, and similar future models from the same importer may also be subject until verified.
- These changes could ultimately lead to higher landed costs for affected equipment and additional documentation or contract review, especially in industries indirectly exposed to MHDV-parts supply chains.
- For additional information, please refer to the official Federal Register Notice (2025-19639) here.
- If you would like help evaluating whether your supply chain has exposure or documenting content claims under USMCA, contact us today!
Deal or No Deal: Trump Teases 155% Tariffs on China
- Donald Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 155% on imports from China if a trade deal isn’t reached by November 1, 2025.
- Current base tariffs on Chinese goods are around 55%—meaning the proposed increase would more than double existing duties.
- The target could include technology components, consumer products, and items made with U.S. software, reflecting national-security and supply-chain concerns.
- The measure remains a threat rather than a confirmed policy; no official proclamation or implementing regulations have yet been published, so the situation remains fluid.
- Don’t let another update pass you by! Sign-up to receive our complimentary Shap Flash alerts in real-time—or bookmark our Trump’s Trade Tariff Updates page.
Neither Snow nor Rain nor Bureaucratic Pain…The Mailman Delivers Again!
- After Uncle Sam “returned to sender” the $800 de minimis rule on August 29, e-commerce parcels under that once-magical value are now getting the full treatment—customs forms, duties, and enough delays to make your Amazon cart cry for mercy.
- UPS air terminals are buried under more paperwork than Santa’s naughty list.
- E-tailers once ghosted the post for being too slow—but now, the old flame’s looking fine again. With express couriers tangled in red tape, international mail is suddenly the low-cost, rule-abiding rebound option everyone’s texting at 2 a.m.
- CBP has now blessed 27 companies to collect duties on mail shipments, giving new meaning to “mailing it in.” The postal lane could soon be the go-to for low-value goods—until the next policy plot twist, of course.
- Posts like Deutsche Post are tacking on modest “handling fees” (roughly $2.36 per parcel) to manage the new data and duty demands. It’s not the carefree, de minimis joyride of yore—but it’s still cheaper than an express heartbreak.
- The rule change hit hard enough to make even the mailman sweat. Nearly 90 foreign posts temporarily stopped shipping to the U.S., and volumes fell a jaw-dropping 81%.
- A few brave souls—like DHL Post & Parcel and Australia Post—are back, proudly licking stamps in defiance.
- Many retailers are hedging their bets—stashing hot sellers in U.S. warehouses and letting the postman play Cupid for slower-moving stock.
- Experts warn the postal party could be over fast if CBP tightens entry rules or courts strike down emergency tariffs. But for now, the message is clear: when the couriers can’t deliver, the mailman always rings twice.
From Matryoshkas to Maritime Mischief: Europe Unpacks Russia's Shadow Fleet
- The European Union (EU) is done playing peekaboo with Moscow’s maritime matryoshka dolls—it’s ready to pry open the layers and see what’s inside.
- New rules would let member states board and inspect tankers suspected of dodging sanctions or sailing safety standards straight into the ice.
- It’s Europe’s frostiest flex yet against the Kremlin’s so-called shadow fleet—a thousand rusty tankers lumbering across the oceans like aging bears looking for honey (or in this case, hard currency).
- This ragtag armada now makes up 17% of the world’s tanker pool, up 45% since 2023 as Russia scrambled to keep oil flowing under G7 price caps—proof that desperation breeds… innovation, or at least creative flag registration.
- Many of these ships are uninsured, under-maintained, and about as transparent as a vodka bottle after a long Siberian night.
- The EU’s 19th sanctions package will pour another shot into the mix: blacklisting 160 more vessels (totaling about 560) and fast-tracking the Russian LNG import ban to January 1, 2027. The UK is clinking glasses in agreement—sanctioning 44 shadow fleet tankers, seven LNG carriers, and even a few Chinese terminals for good measure.
- The European External Action Service (EEAS) wants “pre-authorized boardings”—basically, a permission slip for EU navies to crack open suspicious tankers in coordination with flag states like Panama, which promises to stop licensing anything older than 15 years or shadier than a Moscow backroom deal.
- France estimates that 30–40% of Russia’s war funding flows through these ghostly oil exports—meaning a serious clampdown could freeze the Kremlin’s cash faster than a January in Murmansk.
- France, Estonia, Germany, and Finland have already detained suspect tankers, and the EEAS sees “renewed momentum” for a coordinated crackdown. It’s cold comfort for Moscow—but the West is clearly turning up the heat on the world’s iciest oil operation.
How U.S. Freight Is Truckin', Railin', and Re-Routing
- TRUCKIN’
- Truckin’, got my chips cashed in… just keep truckin’ on: the ATA tonnage index fell to 114.2 in September (from 115.3 in August). After mid-summer highs, truck freight is feeling a little softer, like the “light’s all shinin’ on me… other times I can barely see.”
- BTS August data showed a 115 index, the highest since July 2023, reminding carriers that “sometimes the cards ain’t worth a dime if you don’t lay ‘em down.”
- Regulatory hitch: A 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks (Nov 1) could make fleet management “a long, strange trip,” affecting equipment costs, leasing, and resale markets. Let us hope they will get by, and they will survive (wait, that’s the wrong song, y’all!).
- Compliance caution: Indiana’s fatal crash involving a non-CDL driver proves “they just won’t let you be”—emphasizing the need for diligence across shippers and brokers.
- Takeaway: Expect downward pressure on trucking volumes, rates, and brokered loads. Keep truckin’… but keep a “great, full” Grateful playlist handy!
- TRUCKIN’ BY CITY (with a Grateful wink to the Dead)
- Chicago, New York, Detroit: “Arrows of neon and flashing marquees out on Main Street” reflect busy hubs with lots of movement—but volumes are softening. Carriers are navigating typical city daydreams while watching tonnage slip.
- Dallas: “Got a soft machine”—moderate freight levels, stable but nothing flashy. Truckers may need to mellow slowly and pick a route carefully.
- Houston: “Too close to New Orleans”—supply chains feeling the heat from Gulf port congestion and inland routing. Timing is everything to avoid bottlenecks.
- Buffalo: Trucking volumes moving north, but “(it) takes time, you pick a place to go.” Freight is steady, but patience is key.
- Bourbon Street (Louisiana): Compliance and safety issues can hit like a surprise police raid: “Got a tip they’re gonna kick the door in again.” Best to keep papers and certifications in order.
- RAIL (Apologies: this is Railin’, not Truckin’)
- Imports are down, with ITS Logistics forecasting monthly flows below two million TEUs for the rest of 2025. Inland surges earlier in the year mean congestion still lingers, like “most of the cats that you meet on the streets speak of true love… most of the time they’re sittin’ and cryin’ at home”—freight moving slower than hoped.
- Coastal-to-interior chains remain pressured, with drayage and rail networks feeling bottlenecks. Once congestion clears, weaker import flows may hit trucking and intermodal operations.
- California terminals: Local derailment in the City of Industry (15 cars) creates a ripple effect, “set up like a bowlin’ pin… knocked down, it gets to wearin’ thin.” Even small disruptions can ripple through major hubs.
- Intermodal shippers should brace for variability: cost shifts, schedule changes, and occasional chaos. As Jerry and we said already, “the light’s all shinin’ on me, other times I can barely see.”
- CODA
- The U.S. freight scene is truckin’ along, but volumes are softening, tariffs loom, and congestion persists. Stay alert, stay compliant, and as the Dead would say: “Back home, (I) sit down and patch my bones… and get back truckin’ on.”
