Featured Headlines:
Red-Carpet for the Red Sea: But Carriers Aren’t Rolling It Out Just Yet
A Fee Too Far: When Port Charges Became a Blunder on the Board
HTS 2026: Coming Soon to a Screen Near You
US Trade Signals Change for Syria
BIS Temporarily Hits Pause on the Affiliates Rule
State of the Trade Union: Trump Tariff Updates
The Star-Mangled Banner: How a Tiny Wire Toppled a Giant Bridge
Super-Charged Drama at 30,000 Feet
Full-Court Freight: Rails Slam Dunk, LTL “Travels”, CDLs Benched
Red-Carpet for the Red Sea: But Carriers Aren’t Rolling It Out Just Yet
- After two years of diversions, detours, and enough red tape to wrap the entire Cape of Good Hope, the Red Sea finally caught a break—and not a moment too soon for shippers who’ve been seeing red over fuel bills.
- Interestingly, “seeing red” has various origin stories. On one hand, we have an irate bull further enraged by a red muleta; on the other, we have the natural hue of a furious face, red with passion. What is your vote?!
- Last week, the Houthis announced a pause in maritime attacks following the Israel–Hamas ceasefire—a diplomatic red-letter day for the region, though perhaps a red flag for ocean carrier executives who’ve quietly enjoyed premium rates thanks to prolonged disruption. Will the peace last?!
- Clarkson’s data shows Suez transits climbing from roughly 244 ships per week in October to 269 in November—a solid uptick from the 229-ship weekly average during the first nine months of 2025. Still, we’re miles from the 495–500 weekly crossings before vessels were forced into their long, scenic “please tell me we’re not actually doing this” detours around Africa. Wait! Where are the red herrings for THIS bullet?!
- With peace breaking out, several global lines are eyeing a return. Maersk is reportedly close to making a formal announcement—though nobody wants to be caught red-handed rushing back into the chokepoint if conditions shift again.
- The Suez Canal Authority is rolling out the administrative red carpet, scheduling meetings with major ocean carriers in hopes of accelerating a full normalization of east–west trade.
- Analysts estimate that routing ships around the Cape tied up 10–11% of global ocean carrier capacity—effectively keeping supply tight and profits pleasantly not in the red. A lasting peace could free that capacity in early 2026, which, ironically, might be the moment when carrier CFOs truly start seeing red again.
A Fee Too Far: When Port Charges Became a Blunder on the Board
- The US and China have agreed to pause their reciprocal port fees for a year—a classic “draw by repetition” after both sides realized they weren’t actually checkmating each other. Transportation executives say the real story isn’t geopolitics; it’s US exporters who suddenly found themselves as accidental pawns pushed straight into harm’s way.
- Trade groups warn the fees were aimed squarely at China but ended up pinning US exporters instead. Peter Friedmann of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition said the short-lived charges from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on China-built and China-owned vessels didn’t stay on the board long enough to reshape global shipping—though they did manage to deliver a tidy little rook-side attack on carriers that handle massive volumes of US farm exports.
- At $50 per net ton per voyage, the fees were a hefty piece to sacrifice. Some lines scurried their vessels across the board to avoid exposure, but OOCL and Cosco reportedly handed over about $42 million in just the first week after the policy took effect on October 14—essentially losing a queen before the opening was over.
- Analysts estimated that Chinese carriers could face as much as $1.5 billion in charges in 2026 if the policy returned—an endgame no one was eager to play out.
- After meetings in South Korea, both governments agreed to freeze the fees for one year as part of a broader thaw—something like pushing the clocks, shaking hands, and agreeing that maybe everyone should stop trying to castle their way out of a self-created mess.
- The USTR concluded that China used unfair practices to build a strong lead in shipbuilding and shipping, prompting the U.S. to impose fees intended to counter that advantage and spark investment in American shipyards. But critics note the Trump White House often launched these tariff volleys like a player who thinks “opening theory” means pushing any pawn that looks interesting.
- After loud protests from farmers, early exemptions for empty vessels arriving to load U.S. agricultural exports were added. In other words: the government realized it had pinned its own bishop and tried to reverse the move as quietly as possible.
- Meanwhile, Trump-era tariffs nudged Beijing toward Brazilian suppliers—and that file has stayed open. This year China has imported 42 million tons of soybeans from Brazil versus just 16.57 million tons from the U.S. Beijing pledged under the October agreement to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans in November and December, but so far actual committed orders total just 840,000 tons for December and January—a gap so large it looks less like a trade imbalance and more like a board where half the pieces never showed up.
HTS 2026: Coming Soon to a Screen Near You
- Trade lovers, mark your calendars—the 484(f) Committee is previewing its proposed HTS statistical changes set to debut January 1, 2026.
- The Committee for the Statistical Annotation of Tariff Schedules is reviewing updates that may add, delete, or revise 10-digit statistical reporting numbers for imports (HTS) and exports (Schedule B).
- The committee is also evaluating changes to units of quantity and statistical notes, which will guide shippers and brokers on how goods must be reported moving forward.
- You can review the current list under consideration here: Fall 2025 484(f) Statistical Reporting Numbers Under Consideration.
- Keep in mind that new 10-digit reporting numbers remain effective for five years, so any changes adopted will stick around for a while.
- Shapiro will keep an eye on the final version as it takes shape—because in the world of HTS updates, there’s always a new release around the corner.
- Need a refresher on HTS terminology while you prep for 2026? Explore Shapiro’s brand-new HTS Glossary—your go-to guide for decoding classification language.
US Trade Signals Change for Syria
- After years of full stops, the U.S. has officially switched several Syria restrictions to “proceed with caution,” issuing Executive Order 14312 in June to roll back broad sanctions and encourage renewed engagement by U.S. businesses and international partners.
- The administration says easing sanctions aims to support Syria’s economic rebuilding, improve conditions for all communities, and reduce opportunities for terrorism and illicit networks to take root.
- What business is now allowed?
- The U.S. no longer maintains comprehensive sanctions on Syria.
- The Caesar Act is suspended, except when transactions involve Russia or Iran.
- Most basic civilian-use U.S.-origin goods, software, and tech can now move to or within Syria without a license.
- What restrictions remain?
- Sanctions still apply to Bashar al-Assad and associates, human rights abusers, Captagon traffickers, and other destabilizing actors.
- Syria’s State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) status remains under review.
- Most Commerce Control List items going to Syria still require a U.S. export license.
- The government’s updated regulatory posture is designed to encourage legitimate commerce while keeping prohibited actors firmly on the red-light list.
- Read the full Tri-Seal Advisory here.
- If your team is navigating Syria-related inquiries and isn’t sure which signals apply, Shapiro can help keep you on the right side of the controls.
BIS Temporarily Hits Pause on the Affiliates Rule
- Welcome to the regulatory halftime show! The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has hit the pause button on its Affiliates Rule, giving exporters a little breathing room while the agency reassesses its next moves.
- For anyone scrambling to understand how to comply, this one-year suspension means extra time to review partners, ownership chains, and any potential exposure to listed entities.
- The suspension rolls out in two phases:
- Phase 1 (Nov. 10, 2025–Nov. 9, 2026): A full pause—BIS is temporarily removing all Affiliates Rule changes from the Export Administration Regulations (EAR).
- Phase 2 (effective Nov. 10, 2026): The Affiliates Rule’s requirements and license obligations will be reinserted into the EAR, unless BIS decides otherwise based on its review.
- During the intermission year, BIS will evaluate U.S. national security and foreign policy considerations tied to foreign affiliates that aren’t currently listed but may pose concerns.
- Public comments submitted during the original rulemaking will be reviewed for potential future updates, though BIS hasn’t explained how or when responses may be published.
- Coverage will eventually return to full strength: all license requirements and related provisions removed during the pause will come back online starting November 10, 2026.
- Until then, enjoy the brief regulatory breather—but don’t mistake it for a finale. BIS will be back for Act II.
- You can access the full rule here: Federal Register Notice (2025-19846).
State of the Trade Union: Trump Tariff Updates
- U.S. Removes Tariffs on Select Agricultural Goods (11/14/25):
- On November 14, 2025, the U.S. government quietly flipped a page in its tariff book: 237 HTSUS classifications plus 11 special categories of agricultural goods are now out of the reciprocal tariff scope.
- The change takes effect for imports entered/withdrawn for consumption as of 12:01 a.m. EST, November 13, 2025—if your cargo rolled in after that date, it may dodge the extra duty.
- High-profile items on the list include coffee, tea, tropical fruits, fruit juices, cocoa, spices, bananas, tomatoes, beef and more.
- Read the full Executive Order here.
- U.S. South Korea Trade Deal Announced (11/14/25):
- The U.S. reciprocal tariffs on most Korean imports will be reduced from approximately 25% to 15%. Generic drugs, aircraft parts, and certain natural-resources will enjoy tariff-free access in many cases.
- In exchange, South Korea has committed to a $350 Billion investment in the U.S. including $150 billion for the shipbuilding sector. They will also commit to reducing non-trade barriers for agriculture, digital services, and online platforms.
- Latin America Reciprocal Trade Frameworks Announced (11/14/25):
- The White House unveiled a set of “Reciprocal Trade Frameworks” with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
- The agreements prioritize lowering U.S. tariffs on key imports like bananas, coffee, textiles, pharmaceutical inputs, and natural resources in exchange for removing non-Tariff barriers facing U.S. goods.
- Don’t let another update pass you by! Sign-up to receive our complimentary Shap Flash alerts in real-time—or bookmark our Trump’s Trade Tariff Updates page.
The Star-Mangled Banner: How a Tiny Wire Toppled a Giant Bridge
- O say can you see, by the dawn’s early inspection report, how a single mislabeled wire aboard the containership Dali managed to do what no cannon fire, no British frigate, and no “perilous fight” could? Yes—bring down the Francis Scott Key Bridge, namesake of the man who wrote the tune we’re now borrowing to tell this tale.
- According to the NTSB’s latest public meeting, the whole saga began deep inside a 300-meter-long ship where one wire—prevented by its own labeling bands (the nautical equivalent of tripping on your shoelaces)—refused to seat properly in a spring-clamp terminal. And with all the gallantry of a damp sparkler, it popped a breaker and plunged the ship into darkness.
- That first blackout led to a second, a kind of maritime encore that nobody asked for, killing propulsion and steering. Suddenly the Dali was drifting toward the Key Bridge with all the majestic inevitability of “the rockets’ red glare”—except instead of proving the flag was still there, it proved the bridge most definitely would not be there.
- As investigators put it, the Key Bridge had no modern defenses to withstand a hit from vessels of today’s supersized “bombs bursting in air.” Think: a 95,000-ton steel-and-container battering ram gliding silently forward while the lights refused to come back on. No rampart could have watched that and remained gallantly streaming.
- Now comes the rebuild—and O say does that price tag yet wave? It certainly does, at a star-spangled $5.2 billion, more than twice early projections. Inflation, construction costs hotter than a Fourth of July grill, stricter federal resilience rules, and a pier-protection system have all greatly expanded the bill.
- The timeline, too, has slipped. Officials now say reopening won’t come until 2030—two years later than promised. Apparently building a bridge that can withstand a ship whose “broad stripes and bright stars” are shipping containers stacked ten high is harder than tuning a national anthem high note.
- So, in the end, through the night, the flag was still there…the bridge, sadly, was not. But give Maryland six years, five billion dollars, and a fender the size of a small nation, and it will rise again—o’er the land of the free, the home of the brave, and the domain of very carefully labeled wires.
Super-Charged Drama at 30,000 Feet
- Lithium batteries continue to be a “hot” commodity no one wants “heating up”—especially anywhere near an aircraft.
- Nearly 60% of Dangerous Goods (DG) pros say their own protections are solid, but only 22% trust their suppliers …and a shocking 19% trust their downstream partners.
- Three companies were hit with penalties for up to $170K for shipping undeclared or poorly packed lithium batteries on FedEx and UPS flights. In one case, the battery literally caught fire. Shocking… but also not shocking.
- More lithium-ion goods enter supply chains every year. Spending on DG safety jumped 43% in five years, yet 57% say their current investment only covers “today.”
- Over 50% of companies have had packaging issues, and 60% plan to invest in smart packaging soon. Because nothing says “peace of mind” like knowing your box won’t spontaneously combust.
- Tech is stepping in where tribal knowledge can’t. Companies are swapping “Bob’s been doing it this way for 30 years” for sensors, virtual training, and automated DG classification tools. Machines don’t forget but humans forget before (and after) lunch.
- Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals built a dedicated lithium battery bunker with fireproof partitions and thermal sensors. Basically, a panic room but for batteries that might try to explode.
- Training lowers risk, but physical defenses still matter because there will always be that one shipment that shows up looking innocent and turns into a “bonfire.”
Full-Court Freight: Rails Slam Dunk, LTL “Travels”, CDLs Benched
- Railroads Race to the Midwest — Fast Break Style!
- Union Pacific is dribbling past the congested Chicago paint with an $85B bid for Norfolk Southern. If regulators give the whistle blow, shippers from Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan could bypass Chicago’s “dray-and-delay” circus entirely—a classic alley-oop straight to the Midwest.
- Meanwhile, BNSF and CSX are running full-court presses from SoCal to Ohio/Northeast, slicing ~32 hours off transit times with Z-trains and a North Baltimore remix that’s straight out of the highlight reel. Ocean carriers? They’re sitting on the bench, scrolling their phones, refusing to call a play.
- LTL Land Grab Hits the Brakes — Foul Trouble!
- Yellow’s terminal expansion is nearly exhausted, and carriers are finding themselves short-handed on freight to feed the new doors. Even after a buying spree, LTL capacity is still 6% below pre-Yellow levels—not exactly a championship run.
- Daily shipments are dropping across the league, forcing carriers to bench ambitious growth plans. It’s a bit like missing a free throw when the game is on the line.
- CDL Crackdown — Technical Foul on the Road.
- California just called a technical foul, revoking 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs as “illegally issued,” despite stricter rules not yet being in effect. Nevada followed suit, benching nearly 1,000 drivers after 99.5% failed FMCSA updated requirements.
- With FMCSA freezing new non-domiciled CDLs, states are auditing like referees watching a replay. Shippers aren’t calling a timeout yet, but early lane tightening out of SoCal suggests the squeeze might be coming—and no team likes playing with half its roster benched.
