Multiple EOs Signed Clarifying Previous Tariffs (Updated: 5/1)

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Editor’s Note: First, let us say that the humanitarian impacts and terrifying possibilities of a raging geopolitical storm leading to a global conflict are what really matter when eyeing Gaza. That is a concern well beyond this blog! We write this in the spirit of the annual budgets we are preparing (or will soon be preparing), and our businesses. 

What the heck are we international shippers all going to do when the Suez Canal is blocked or compromised by the current and broadening conflicts in Gaza, Israel, and beyond? 

Let’s start this tirade in Panama—the slightly more famous canal among the proud Americans who financed that impressive project back in 1914. Yikes! First, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) lowered the maximum (max) draft levels from 50 to 44 feet, which limits max vessel sizes. Since then, the PCA has already reduced the number of vessel transits per day from 36 to 32 (in July) to 24 (in November), followed by an announcement that the daily max will drop to 18 by February 2024! 

Hey, no problem, we’ll just pay a few dollars more to wait a few days longer for Suez routings, right? …Right? …Maybe wrong. 

Here are a few fun facts to help put things into perspective for us: 

  • Philadelphia is farther from Washington DC than the Gaza Strip is from the Suez Canal. 
  • 130 slender miles separate the infamous Refah border crossing in Egypt’s Sinai and the busiest and eldest major canal on planet Earth. 
  • Al-Arish Airport, the primary hub for humanitarian shipments for Gaza is 28 miles from the Refah border, separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt. 
  • The Suez is not only 45 years older, but also 244% busier than our darling Panama Canal! 
  • Remember, both sides of the noble Suez sit on Egyptian soil. 


Sinai Peninusla (Egypt)

So, we are all in trouble obviously! Have you considered a world where Iran, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia gang up on Israel, and the Suez is closed indefinitely?  

Not so fast, reactionary readers. You don’t want to be “Egypted” off when seeking your supply chain information! 

Before we delve into the current situation, let’s briefly review a few of the region’s defining moments over the past century that helped shape the present political context at hand:

Enter Egypt

Today, it is said that the official position of Egypt is negative toward Hamas because they are literally the offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood. This organization has done much harm to Egypt in the eyes of many after what’s amounted to nine years of military rule under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. That said, there is tremendous popular support for Hamas among the people—and most Egyptians would not like to see Palestinians, perhaps even members of Hamas, suffer. 

Egypt is also closely allied with both the United States and Israel, and these connections run deep and wide, as they pertain to financial aid and developmental support for Egypt. A telling example of this cooperation is the ongoing blockade of vessels to and from the Gaza Strip. And, frankly speaking, the Suez Canal is a huge economic contributor for Egypt. It is very hard to imagine Egypt attacking Israel any time soon. They now have many ties that bind, and Hamas is hardly seen as saintly in the eyes of Egypt. 

What happens if Iran or her many “seedlings” like Hezbollah take aim at the Suez?  

The short-term consequence—especially if Panama is as dry as a desert—is that we all get to know (and love) the Cape of Good Hope around South Africa. Our freight prices will increase by 100% and our transits will extend by as much as 50%, but we’ll still be in business. As of today, that seems like the worst-case shipping scenario; though, if we get there, the world is in CONTAINERLOADS of trouble. 

What’s Shapiro’s outlook on the matter?  

We feel that it’s likely that some Panama Canal business would start to move by rail from Cristobal to Balboa if the Suez is blocked and rendered useless. Our bet is it is a 1% chance. However, if it comes to that reality, just know that Panama’s rail connections from the Pacific to the Atlantic have never been faster, more reliable, or more affordable than today. By hook and by crook, even if we must use western Mexico, we’ll be routing freight to every single boy and girl in the US.  

Again, our point is not to diminish the anguish occurring in the Middle East. An unprovoked attack followed by even more human suffering: it is impossible to label this anything but a tragedy. But it would be foolish not to consider potential dire developments. Shifting our focus to commerce, we’re betting on a resourceful global supply chain in 2024! 

Itching to weigh in on our little tirade and/or rant about your current escapades? Contact Shapiro today

Helpful Links/Related Topics: 

Shipping Line News

  • The Alliance has suspended its EC4 service, which covers Kaohsiung, Xiamen, Hong Kong, Yantian, Cai Mep, Singapore, Norfolk, Savannah, Charleston, Newark-New York, and Singapore.
  • “Green” ships (methanol-powered and/or dual fuel) continue to be produced in keeping with the large orders placed in 2022 and the beginning of 2023. These orders total 187 ships and represent a total capacity of 1.75 mTEU.
  • The total number of idled carrier vessels is now 315, totaling over 1.18m TEU.

Blank Sailings Up Dramatically

  • Blank sailings continue to increase on the eastbound trans-Pacific in an attempt to establish control over spot rates.
  • This has effectively reduced capacity by an estimated 22%, compared to just an 11.5% reduction in September.
  • Delays of up to 14 days have been reported due to rolled cargo.
  • Amid this persistent and widespread rate pressure for US shipments, intra-Asia import trades to India are up a whopping 40% in the last three months.
  • This uptick is causing liners to increase their port calls along with sending bigger vessels on the route.


Container Volume Asia to US East Coast Ports (2023)
Container Volume Asia to US East Coast Ports (2023)

Container Volume Asia to US West Coast Ports (2023)
Container Volume Asia to US West Coast Ports (2023)

In a world already fraught with frightening freight challenges, shippers are now grappling with a bone-chilling new threat that haunts their every waking moment—a rising number of cargo thefts. Statistics reveal a total of 566 incidents documented this year, marking a spine-tingling 56% year-over-year increase. These thieves, driven by an insatiable appetite for cash, target a wide array of commodities, ranging from high-end electronics to essential construction materials and coveted sneakers, akin to a wicked assortment of Halloween candy. The startling reality is that these robberies have amassed a staggering total value of over $40 million, at an average of $260,000 per theft. 

But these spectral criminals aren’t content with lurking in the shadows; they’ve established their ghoulish dominion near bustling hubs and cities. Among these locales, California and Georgia have emerged as the principal settings for this spooky saga. In an audacious display, some of these larcenists are causing entire truckloads to vanish. They are orchestrating fake pick-ups with unsuspecting drivers, leaving only a ghost behind in their wake. 

Most of the purloined goods find their way to the darkest corners of the black market, fetching a mere 15-20% of their actual value. However, certain items, such as electronics and high-demand shoes, are stealthily maneuvered onto online platforms like eBay and Facebook Marketplace, often fetching prices that equal or even exceed their MSRP. 

The Environmental Skeletons in the Global Closet

We guess you may have read about global warming or watched a docile tropical storm rage into a Class 5 hurricane in a day, or maybe you have floated into your own backyard on your sofa.  Call it what your political party insists, but there should be a skull-and-crossbones warning label on much of our planet. 

Your cargo has never been haunted by so many potential ghouls along the treacherous path of your supply chain. Forty percent of global ports (those that handle 60% of the world’s cargo) are already in potential jeopardy from rising water levels.  Vessels and aircraft have never faced choppier seas or more violent turbulence.  Floods, typhoons, droughts, hurricanes, fires, and witches all lurk, and many companies just aren’t even close to ready. 

Like a giant Jack-o-Lantern, complete with a crooked grinning jaw, the Earth is laughing at your vulnerable cargo and your skimpy property policy.  Yes, the one that “claims” to cover cargo claims! 

Ward Away the Shadows with Cargo Insurance

Fear not, for there’s a solution to ward off the impacts of these sinister spirits: cargo insurance. There are many benefits to cargo insurance. Here are a few examples: 

  • Financial Safeguard: Cargo insurance serves as a safeguard for your investments, creating a protective barrier that shields you from potential financial issues in the event of theft or damage during transit.
  • Risk Mitigation: Insurance can give you peace of mind in moving expensive or large shipments. If something does happen to the cargo, the risk is mitigated in terms of realized losses.
  • Operational Continuity: Having cargo insurance in place for a shipment expedites the claims process, ensuring that losses are recovered swiftly. This reduced processing time helps to minimize operational disruptions since new goods can be on their way more quickly. 
  • Competitive Advantage: It is more than just protection; it is a statement of professionalism in the world of international trade. Your clients and partners will view your business as responsible and reliable.

What Goes in this Perfect Potion? 

Things to consider when choosing cargo insurance: 

  1. Coverage Scope: When selecting cargo insurance, it’s imperative to ascertain that the policy is tailored to your unique risks. For example, if you’re importing delicate porcelain china, your policy should explicitly cover damage due to handling or breaking during transit.
  2. Policy Limits: Review the limits of coverage to ensure they align with the value of your cargo. The coverage should reflect the true value of your shipments.
  3. Deductibles: Be aware of the deductibles you’d be responsible for in case a claim is made. Knowing the deductible amount is crucial, as it directly impacts the out-of-pocket expense in case of a claim.
  4. Claims Process: Investigate the ease and efficiency of the claims process with your chosen insurance provider. If you’re importing perishable goods, a swift and straightforward claims process is vital, as delays could result in significant losses.
  5. Customization: Look for cargo insurance policies that can be customized to suit your specific requirements around handling, transportation, etc.

To safeguard your imports and ensure the continuity of your operations, cargo insurance is an indispensable tool, especially with thefts on the rise. By choosing the right policy, you can protect your investments, mitigate risks, and gain peace of mind. If you’d like assistance in obtaining cargo insurance, book an appointment with our logistics experts today!

It’s no secret that the decline of cable television has given rise to a new entertainment behemoth: streaming platforms. The resulting power struggle forced network executives to rethink the wheel to attract more viewers than their competitors, and in turn, more advertising revenue. One of the tactics that’s taken centerstage is based upon the age-old adage, “give the people what they want.” Well, it turns out that people want more true crime documentary series.

Why is this relevant, you may ask?  Because much like this genre, regulatory compliance is riddled with dynamic complexities, unexpected twists, minute details, and probing questions—especially when it comes to classifying your products. Classification doesn’t have to be an unsolvable puzzle or a “bored” game. So, watch out Colonel Mustard—Shapiro is here to decipher the clues and crack the classification code!

HS v. HTS codes: What’s the Difference?

The easiest place to start is with HS codes. Harmonized System (HS) codes help declare the identity of goods to the various importing countries’ customs offices. They were developed by the World Customs Organization (WCO) to standardize global trade and have since become a well-established practice worldwide. HS codes consist of six digits and are updated every five years.

On the flip side, the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) is a numerical code that helps customs officials, shippers, and traders alike decipher the complex language of cross-border goods. HTS codes expand the six-digit HS code to ten digits and are managed by the US International Trade Commission (ITC). When importing a product, a shipment will be assigned an HTS code, and the shipper must ensure that it corresponds with the country codes of importation. Much like an airport, HTS codes act as international passports that guide your product through different tariffs, duties, and regulations; and Customs officials are the terminal security agents who ensure passenger compliance with standard regulations.


Hacking and Cracking the HTS Code

If you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, you may have heard about the recent wave of password crackdowns that streaming services have implemented in an effort to combat shared accounts. But how do companies like Netflix and Disney+ know when multiple people are using a shared account? Easy—by monitoring Internet Protocol (IP) addresses, which are the numerical labels that uniquely identify network interfaces and specific locations. Just as your internet modem has a unique numerical address, so do your products.

As we discussed above, HTS codes have ten digits; with the first six digits corresponding to the HS code. Here’s a breakdown of the code and what each portion represents:

  • Chapter: There are 21 distinct sections split into 96 chapters. Although the HTS technically includes Chapters 1-99, there are three exception chapters omitted from the total count:
    • Chapter 77 (Reserved for Future Use) is blank.
    • Chapter 98 (Special Classification provisions) is limited to national use.
    • Chapter 99 (Temporary Legislation; Temporary Modifications; Additional Import Restrictions) is a specific code limited to temporary modifications and national use.
  • Heading: Dictates the specific category within any chapter.
  • Subheading (HS code): The last two digits are more specific and define the subcategories of products.
  • Subheading: For the US, the seventh and eighth digits represent the country specific sub-heading.
  • Statistical Suffix:The last two digits identify country-specific categorization.

To help keep track of rulings and classifications, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has a database—known as the Customs Rulings Online Search System (CROSS)—which can be used to search for US HTS codes and rulings dating back to 1989. If you’re interested in reading a few fast (and fun) facts about the latest and greatest US HTS edition (2023) from the ITC, click here.


Hacking and Cracking the HTS Code

If the HTS process wasn’t complicated enough, the US also uses a separate ten-digit code to denote exports, known as the Schedule B number. The US Foreign Trade Division is responsible for assigning a Schedule B number for every product exported out of the country. As with the HTS codes, the first six digits are the global HS number. For help pinpointing your products, check out the Schedule B Search Engine, or contact us directly!


Get a Clue on Tariff Engineering

Tariff engineering can often feel like a game of Clue. It’s all about taking stock of what’s in front of you, asking the right questions, and finding the right nooks and crannies in the tariff schedule. By adjusting the design of your product, you can legally optimize your import duties and avoid paying the proverbial troll under the bridge trying to eat into your profits.

As a great example, a popular shoe company includes layers of felt on the sole. They ensure that the felt covers 50% of the sole, which allows them to classify their imports as slippers instead of shoes. Tariffs for slippers range between 7.5% to 12.5%, while regular footwear with rubber soles can have duties of 37.5% or higher. The pennies of felt and labor to change the code certainly seem worth the tradeoff.


Spilling the Penal-Teas on Apparel

Textile imports can be classified under roughly 5,500 different HTS codes in the U.S. With each item falling under a specific ten-digit heading subject to change every five years, you may find yourself in an exponentially more complicated situation than you signed up for. To give you an idea of just how much HTS codes can cause duties to vary, there is a 27% difference between declaring apparel as “silk” (0.9% tariff) and “other” (28% tariff). These codes can make a huge difference to the bottom line of an importer and should be evaluated by an expert. When it comes to classifying, there’s no room for ex-SKU-ses. Even the smallest of errors can quickly spool out of control, causing your whole supply chain to unravel.  If you don’t believe us, then try this one on for size…

You might be thinking, “it’s just a tiny piece of fabric, what’s the big hang-up?” Well, the moral of our tale of two retail shirts is simple: don’t let negligent knit-wits take you to the cleaners. If Customs officials end up flagging the misclassification or FTA needle in the entry haystack, then Shirt B could cost Twead-ledum (the retailer) penalties amounting to 20% of the dutiable value, double the loss of lawful duties, taxes and fees, or much worse!

Shapiro’s best practices are outfitted in reasonable care. With over 100 years in the business, we’ve discovered that one size doesn’t always fit all; and we’ve learned to expertly stitch together solutions that are tailored to your needs.


How Shapiro “CAM” Help You!

Classification questions can be daunting; which is exactly why CBP recommends against do-it-yourself use of the HTS classification system and also why robo-classifications (classifications performed by computers, programs, and software systems) tend to be accurate less than 50% of the time! Incomplete descriptions or classification errors are costly mistakes that can result in additional duties, delayed cargo release, and penalties.

Shapiro offers an excellent tool to help importers streamline their classification process. Our Classification Advisory Module, or “CAM,” is a one-stop resource for classification. Our skilled compliance detectives use their 250 years of combined experience to research, analyze, and classify each request. Pre-classification is a great way to forecast landed costs and reduce unnecessary research. To get in touch with a member of our classification crew, contact Shapiro today!



Don’t Get Caught!

Regulatory Compliance: There are two simple steps to avoiding trouble: First, know the rules. Second, don’t break them. The potential penalties, both financial and commercial, can be extremely damaging for your business and, in some cases, for you personally. Let’s agree that regulatory compliance isn’t a flexible issue but Shapiro can straighten you out!

PICTURE THIS…It’s 1973. You’ve just arrived at your health-conscious Uncle Larry’s house for the weekend—and are less than enthused when you hear all about the new superfood blender that your uncle won in a raffle at his gym. He then proceeds to offer up one of his “World Famous Larry-aids,” which is loaded with fruits and veggies, and is guaranteed to make you a “lean, mean, fighting machine.” What do you do?

Let’s be real—back in ‘73, most people would have had to fight off a look of sheer horror at the prospect of having to drink something that tasted like feet—and then proceeded to politely decline. But fast forward to today, and the response would probably be much different.

Just as the food pyramid has evolved to promote a healthier lifestyle over the last 50 years, so too has the importance of sustainability in bettering the planet.

Take the shipping industry, for example, which has long relied upon massive steamships to traverse the world’s oceans, thereby producing significant carbon and sulfur emissions. The resulting environmental decay has contributed toward the relatively recent emergence of green organizations—such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB)—thereby enabling us to navigate the treacherous and uncharted (and filthy!) waters with our global partners.

If you haven’t heard about some of the latest and greatest green global initiatives yet, then sit back and enjoy the “smoothie” sailing, as we set the course on “clean, green, pollution-fighting marine machines.”

It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane…No, It’s Ocean Sustainability!

As the saying goes, “birds of the [Exxon Valdez Oil Spill] feather flock together.” (Okay, yes, we might have taken a few liberties there, but we thought we would try to be “slick” and lighten the mood before we “spill.”) Has a little birdie from a flock of “sea”-gulls—ever told you about the 11 million gallons of oil that leaked from a tanker that had run aground in Alaska back in 1989? If not, then you are likely unaware of the environmental devastation that the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill caused.

The resulting public outcry was so sweeping that it led to the establishment of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). Although the GRI is completely independent, it acts as a compass, providing a sustainability reporting framework for companies, allowing them to disclose certain environmental, social, and governance impacts. In a nutshell, the GRI provides shippers with the ability to constructively compare apples-to-apples when it comes to core sustainability progressions.



It wasn’t until the 1990s that “sustainability” became a buzzword. CEOs went unchecked for years as they shouted it from the rooftops in the name of soaring stock prices.

In those days, there was little to no oversight or ability to compare the effectiveness of sustainable initiatives from company to company. It wasn’t until the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board’s (SASB) debut in 2011 that companies were able to measure, manage, and communicate the most relevant and impactful factors to their industry, also known as Environment Social Governance (ESG) factors. Here’s a birds’-eye-view of a few ESGs:

View Environment Social Governance Chart

TopicMetricCategoryUnit of Measure
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Gross global Scope 1 emissionsQuantitativeMetric tons (t) CO2-e
Discussion of long and short-term strategy or plan to manage Scope 1 emissions, emissions reduction targets, and an analysis of performance against those targetsDiscussion
& Analysis
N/A
  • Total energy consumed
  • percentage heavy fuel oil
  • percentage renewable
QuantitativeGigajoules (GJ), Percentage (%)
Average Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) for new shipsQuantitativeGrammes of CO per ton- ₂ nautical mile
Air QualityAir emissions of the following pollutants:
  • NOx (excluding N2O)
  • SOx
  • particulate matter(PM10)
QuantitativeMetric tons (t)
Ecological
Impacts
Shipping duration in marine protected areas or areas of protected conservation statusQuantitativeNumber of travel days
Percentage of fleet implementing ballast water:
  • exchange
  • treatment
QuantitativePercentage (%)
  1. Number
  2. aggregate volume of spills and releases to the environment
QuantitativeNumber – Cubic meters (m³)
Employee Health
& Safety
Lost time incident rate (LTIR)QuantitativeRate
Business EthicsNumber of calls at ports in countries that have the 20 lowest rankings in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception IndexQuantitativeNumber
Total amount of monetary losses as a result of legal proceedings associated with bribery or corruptionQuantitativePresentation currency
Accident & Safety ManagementNumber of marine casualties, percentage classified as very seriousQuantitativeNumber – Percentage (%)
Number of Conditions of Class or RecommendationsQuantitativeNumber
Number of port state control:
  1. deficiencies
  2. detentions
QuantitativeNumber

The above ESG standards emphasize materiality; this means they tend to focus on issues most likely to affect a company’s financials and shareholders. When you tie non-financial factors and incentives to performance, companies are more likely to take sustainability seriously—which ultimately trickles down and benefits society.

Synchronized Diving with the GRI and SASB

There are some things in life that are simply better together—such as peanut butter + jelly; bacon + eggs; or Beyonce + Jay-Z. When it comes to the ocean, there are few matches as “nauti”-cool as the compass and map. You can have one without the other, but both are more useful when paired together.

With this in mind, let’s imagine that the SASB standards function as the Sustainability Compass—which acts as a tool to help navigate the GRI Framework Map.

Realizing the incredible power of their complementary nature, in July 2020, both organizations teamed up to announce a collaborative work plan. Together, they aim to:

  1. Clarify the application of their reporting standards;
  2. Provide insight into how the performance data is used; and
  3. Help consumers of the data understand the similarities and differences in the information generated.

Over 96% of the world’s largest companies report on sustainability performance. It’s clear that the ripple effect from both organizations is starting to make an impact on a global scale.

The Ins- and Out-Comes of Sustainable Shipping

Peter Drucker took a page out of Patrick Henry’s book when he said, “Innovate or die.” While we don’t want to necessarily over-dramatize the situation, there have been many notable advancements in the industry over the last few decades—including hybrid engines, alternative fueling, slow-steaming coupled with route optimization, and utilizing sustainable packaging and materials.

Oftentimes, hybrid engine technology is a somewhat controversial table topic, especially if Uncle Larry still has his prized ‘76 Nova parked in the garage. Politically charged commentary aside, these engines offer a promising solution to minimize the carbon footprint of ocean vessels.

Did you know that ocean shipping alone is responsible for 15% of carbon emissions across the planet? Or that in its lifetime, a single ship contributes almost as much pollution as 50 million cars would? Taking advantage of hybrid technology is an easy double-win for companies. Not only does this reduce carbon emissions by up to 40%, but it also increases fuel efficiency by as much as 30%, resulting in a boatload of savings across the board… which results in another boatload of savings.

In quite the juxtaposition, the slow steaming of vessels has been quick to pick up speed in the shipping world. As its name suggests, slow steaming occurs when a vessel intentionally reduces its speed during transit to optimize fuel expenditure and reduce greenhouse emissions. Some experts estimate that this strategy can reduce fuel consumption by an average of 30% per trip. Much like the hybrid alternative, slow steaming can lower environmental impacts and cut fuel costs relatively effectively and quickly. Additionally, it puts less stress on the ship’s engine, which can extend its lifetime.

The Wrap-Up: Life in Plastic Ain’t Fantastic

Before we wrap-up on this topic, (or start rapping the rest of Aqua’s “Barbie Girl”), let’s quickly touch on packaging materials and methods that have entered the sustainability scene. It comes as no surprise that traditional packing approaches—like bubble wrap or polystyrene—have faced increased criticism in recent years due to the potential wildlife hazards they present, as well as their limited recyclability. Many companies have opted to use more environmentally friendly packaging materials, such as air pillows or recycled paper and plastics, when shipping their products.  

As we head deeper into the twenty-first century, the days of massive steamships belching out noxious fumes grow fewer and fewer; however, the lasting trail of global emissions and pollutants remains firmly in their wake. Just like your Uncle Larry’s pursuit of health, the shipping industry is undergoing a transformative journey towards a more sustainable future on the vitamin “sea”— one that’s loaded with clean, green, pollution-fighting marine machine juices.

In today’s interconnected world, where goods are sourced globally, a dark and omnipresent shadow looms in the background: forced labor. Forced labor generates an estimated $150 billion (USD) in profits and affects over 27 million laborers (about the population of Texas). To avoid this treacherous and complicated pitfall, it is crucial for the logistics, transportation, and shipping industries to be aware of and actively combat the issue of forced labor.  

In this post, we will unravel the supply chain to shed light on this pressing issue and delve into the concept of forced labor, explore the significance of Section 307 of the Tariff Act of 1930, highlight indicators to identify potential violations, and outline strategies to avoid purchasing products or materials manufactured by forced labor.

What in the Labor World is Going On?

Forced labor refers to the exploitation of individuals who are coerced or deceived into working under harsh conditions, often involving physical or psychological abuse. Under the weight of such precarious environments, a worker’s basic human rights are violated—causing shockwaves to trickle down into the ethical and sustainable fabric from which these supply chains are made. Therefore, it is incredibly important to recognize that forced labor can exist across different industries and supply chains, including apparel, electronics, agriculture, and manufacturing. To better understand its implications, let’s explore some specific examples. 

Getting Snippy with it: Forced Labor in the Textile Industry & Apparel Manufacturing Sector

Picture bustling factories in countries like Bangladesh and China, where the threads of forced labor intertwine with the fabrics we wear. Behind the scenes, vulnerable workers—often driven by poverty or the quest for a better life through migration—find themselves ensnared in a sinister lifecycle. These workers often endure grueling hours of labor, toiling under unsafe working conditions that pose risks to their health and well-being. The very garments we purchase may carry the invisible stitching of a system that denies workers’ basic human rights.  

Something Smells Fishy: Forced Labor in Seafood Processing

Now, let’s deep dive into the dark abyss of the fishing and seafood industry, where the waters run murky with tales of forced labor. Aboard fishing vessels across Southeast Asia, unsuspecting workers are trapped in a world of debt bondage, their bodies weary from physical and mental abuse and their spirits confined by the unforgiving chains of exploitation. To make matters worse, these workers are often isolated on vessels from the outside world, leaving them at the mercy of their employers. As their catch makes its way to global markets, the unwitting involvement of companies perpetuates this systemic abuse.  

These examples serve as poignant reminders that forced labor knows no bounds, infiltrating various industries and supply chains. From electronics to agriculture, manufacturing to mining, its insidious reach tarnishes the very essence of fair and ethical business practices. It is our collective responsibility to expose these grave injustices and work tirelessly towards eradicating forced labor from its roots. 

Under the Microscope: Section 307 of the Tariff Act of 1930

Our forefathers (and foremothers) had the insightful ability to begin combating forced labor as early as the 1930s, when the Tariff Act of 1930 was created. The world of logistics has evolved significantly since the days of yesteryear, but one crucial provision of the Tariff Act of 1930 continues to hold immense significance in today’s globalized business landscape: Section 307.  

Section 307, also known as the “Withhold Release Order” (WRO), grants U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) the authority to detain goods that are suspected of being produced using forced labor. And, if the evidence suggests that the merchandise was made, even in part, by forced labor, CBP can issue a WRO, which prevents the goods’ entry into the US. This has served as a critical legal mechanism, allowing the CBP to take a proactive approach against forced labor by holding companies accountable for their sourcing practices. This has sent a clear message that goods tainted by the exploitation of vulnerable workers will not be tolerated; the hope is to foster a more ethical and responsible global trade environment.  

The message is so loud that Congress is now considering addressing a loophole—one that has existed for some time—to better control imports made with forced labor. The loophole involves “de minimis” imports—shipments that are valued under $800 a shipment that enter the country with minimal evaluation or reporting. In 2021, an estimated 446 million packages entered the US without formal entry, mainly from the Xinjiang province in China. Likely because of these statistics, President Biden signed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which covers four main sectors: apparel, cotton and cotton products, silica-based products, and tomatoes and downstream products. Enforcement began on June 21, 2022; it prohibits the importation of goods produced wholly or in part in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China.  However, unlike products subject to IPR, it contained NO exception for de minimis exports. 

Indispensable Insights & Forced Labor Indicators 

Identifying potential forced labor violations is crucial for supply chain professionals. Recognizing key indicators can help flag high-risk situations and enable proactive interventions.  

Here are some common signs to watch out for: 

  • High-Risk Countries and Industries: Certain countries and industries have a higher prevalence of forced labor. These include regions with weak labor laws, limited enforcement, and inadequate protection mechanisms. For example: Countries with documented cases of forced labor in specific sectors, such as apparel manufacturing or agriculture, should be scrutinized more closely. 
  • Recruitment Practices: Unscrupulous recruitment practices are often associated with forced labor. This includes exorbitant recruitment fees, confiscation of identification documents, and deceptive recruitment procedures, where workers are promised decent wages and conditions that never come to fruition. 
  • Working and Living Conditions: Poor working conditions, such as excessively long hours, unsafe environments, and substandard living facilities, can be indicative of forced labor. Unexplained deductions from wages or limited freedom of movement are also red flags that require attention. 
  • Payment and Debt Bondage: Workers that receive pay significantly below minimum wage or experience wage deductions due to fabricated debts are often victims of forced labor. Debt bondage occurs when workers are trapped in a cycle of debt, making it nearly impossible to escape these exploitative working conditions. 

How to Be-Laboring for Justice & Avoid Violations  

Preventing forced labor requires proactive measures and a commitment to ethical sourcing practices. Let’s take a gander at some of the key implementation strategies: 

Supply Chain Mapping & Risk Assessment  Develop a comprehensive understanding of your supply chain, identifying high-risk areas and mapping out the various tiers of suppliers. Document in detail. This assessment can help identify potential vulnerabilities and prioritize efforts to ensure due diligence, which will prove to be useful in the event you need to argue a case with CBP.
Robust Supplier  
Due Diligence 
Thoroughly evaluate suppliers and conduct risk assessments. Document and implement a comprehensive supplier code of conduct that explicitly prohibits forced labor and adheres to international labor standards. Regular audits and site visits can help assess compliance and identify any signs of forced labor. If willing, collaborate with suppliers to address issues and provide support for remediation. 
Code of Conduct & Contracts  Implement a robust code of conduct that explicitly prohibits forced labor and includes provisions for suppliers’ adherence. Contracts should stipulate compliance with labor laws and enable termination in the event of violations. 
Engage & Collaborate with Industry Initiatives  Join industry associations and initiatives dedicated to eradicating forced labor, such as the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA) or the Ethical Trading Initiative (ETI). They can provide access to best practices, resources, and collaborative opportunities with like-minded organizations. Consider certifications like the Marine Stewardship Council and Fair Trade to help break these chains of exploitation. 
Strengthen  
Supply Chain Transparency  
Engage in traceability measures, promoting visibility throughout the supply chain; transparency is a powerful tool to combat forced labor. Encourage suppliers to disclose their own supply chain networks, enabling better risk assessment and identification of potential red flags. 
Worker Empowerment  & Grievance Mechanisms  Establish mechanisms that empower workers to raise concerns and grievances without fear of retaliation. Encourage worker participation, ensure fair wages, and provide safe and healthy working conditions. Promote ethical recruitment practices and support the welfare of vulnerable groups. 

Although we only skimmed the surface of forced labor in this post, we hope that it is abundantly clear that this issue poses significant challenges to the logistics, transportation, and shipping industries at large. Combating forced labor is not only imperative but also crucial for the long-term success and reputation of businesses. 

By understanding the concept of forced labor, recognizing indicators, and implementing proactive strategies, companies can help contribute to the eradication of this heinous practice. And, by championing fair labor practices and prioritizing supply chain transparency, we can work towards a future where every worker is treated with dignity and respect, together. Check out our guide on how to avoid forced labor violations on your imports.

Supply Chain Reactions

A Condensed Update For American Shippers
Issue Date: January 19, 2022

Quote of the Issue:

“We may have all come on different ships, but we’re in the same boat now.”

–  Martin Luther King, Jr. 


Adios Coming for the USMCA?

ShapLight Focus: Congress is pressuring the Biden Administration to bolster US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enforcement efforts— especially with Mexico— on labor, agriculture, telecom, energy, environmental initiatives, and services; while these ambitious and wide-ranging efforts could greatly open markets for US companies, they could also easily result in trade retaliation measures

  • On January 6th, Lisa Wang began her new position as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Enforcement and Compliance (E&C); the Department of Commerce commented that the E&C “leverages its expertise in compliance by holding US trading partners accountable to their obligations under existing multilateral, regional, and bilateral trade agreements”
  • Many industry insiders see the Wang appointment as a move to improve the US’s effectiveness in the World Trade Organization (WTO), especially as future disputes relate to US-China trade
  • The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has suggested new controls on cybersecurity items that impact national security and anti-terrorism efforts including a new license exception; after reading comments submitted from the trade last month, officials have decided to delay the interim final rule until March 7, 2022, to allow the industry sufficient time to comply with the changes
  • After a recent White House proclamation, the new World Customs Organization’s (WCO) Harmonized System tariff nomenclature will go into effect on January 27th

Ocean Freight Rates Will Not Abate

ShapLight Focus: After eclipsing an $11,000 per container average for the first time in history, the Freightos Global Container Global Index sits at $9,500 and 170% higher than one year ago

  • Though FAK rates have improved, the problem for American importers is that less than 50% of the transpacific ocean market is moving on FAK rates
  • When considering premium and co-load options, the average 40’ rate to the USEC is just under $17,000— which is over 200% above last January
  • By the same token, USWC rates (per 40’) average a staggering $14,500 and 235% higher
  • January’s planned operational blank sailings on the transpacific total just under 120,000 TEUs (20% of nominal total capacity) after December’s 160,000 TEUs (30%); January’s blanks also taper down as the month progresses, ending the month near 10%
  • For an industry desperate for good news, the diminishing blanks will only exacerbate US port congestion as dockworkers battle Omicron
  • The $4B of merchandise traveling through Ningbo each week seems to be flowing much better than feared, but Omicron outbreaks in Tianjin and New York will certainly hinder efficiencies in those critical operations; after averaging just 1.6 for all of 2021, New York vessel wait times are above 5 days, with as many as 25% of dockworkers calling in sick
  • While we read about landside efficiency improvements in Los Angeles/Long Beach (LA/LB), the average vessel wait time has reached an unbelievable 23.4 days, with over 100 vessels at anchor or at drift in their harbor

International Air Cargo Transits Taking Off

ShapLight Focus:  The average transit time for international air cargo is almost 50% longer than pre-pandemic levels due to congestion-related inefficiencies; the industry is suffering from Covid labor shortages, crew quarantines, trucking congestion, insufficient airport storage space, and cargo backlogs from ocean to air conversions

  • Though still at the highest volume levels in history, November cargo ton kilometers (CTKs) grew only 3.7% over November 2019; this is the lowest growth rate since January 2021
  • The top three airlines for air cargo CTKs in 2021 were (in order): Federal Express, United Parcel Service and Qatar Airways
  • The top three airlines for passenger kilometers in 2021 were (in order): American Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Delta Airlines
  • Passenger belly space—typically 50% of global cargo capacity—fell to 18% in 2021; total available capacity in the industry was down 13.4%
  • Airline load factors for international cargo improved 12.3% for 2021 vs. pre-pandemic standards and eclipsed 64% overall; the Asia Pacific led the pack with 74% efficiency

Please note our ‘Orange Crush’ Map of US Drayage Backlogs:


Import Freight Rate Trend Charts

Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast (per 40’):
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’):



Our Expert Shapinion

‘Twas one more surprising year

It started with anguish and fear.

Vaccines came around

Some freedom re-found

With hope we were then in the clear.


But outbreaks were still to appear

It seemed the end was not quite near.

And ports were locked down

And labor not found

The challenges became severe.


The freight market, a thing to watch

Each day, the rates moved up a notch.

Contracts were worthless

Customers, mirthless

Was tempting to just turn to scotch.


This translates to challenges with freight

Congestion and problems too great.

We fight with the lines

‘Bout the remarkable fines

And we help get customers straight.


Dear ol’ drayage was a nightmare

Confirmed slots do provoke fanfare.

Truckers in a jam

Port turns just a sham

No wheels, no chassis, is this game fair?


Oh, Long Beach, oh, Los Angeles,

New government evangelists.

Boats anchored at bay

Shippers feel dismay

The trade asks, “can’t you handle this?”


Ocean rates more than a new car

Profits flow beyond the cookie jar.

Carriers wealthy

Blank sailings stealthy

Pushing three year deals is too far.


Here’s to a better Twenty-Two

To the madness last year, say “Shoo!”

Demand simmers down

High rates make us frown

The way we were treated pure doo doo.



 Shap Fact of the Issue:

In 2020, Americans set a record by giving $471B to many diverse charities.  While full data will not be available until April, many financial observers expect the US to shatter this record once all data is collected for 2021.


The leadership and staff of Shapiro understand the personal and business anxiety each of you is experiencing. We want nothing but safety and a return to normalcy for you and your families. Please reach out to us if you have any questions—or if we can assist you in any way.

Supply Chain Reactions

A Condensed Update For American Shippers
Issue Date: December 8, 2021

Quote of the Issue:

“…too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns.”

–  Jimmy Carter. 


Demanding Times for Import and Consumer Demand Forecasters

ShapLight Focus: US household debt rose to an all-time high of $15.24 trillion between July and September

  • The cost of goods in the US as measured by the consumer price index rose 6.2% year-on-year in October—the fastest annual growth rate since 1990
  • The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has launched a probe into what has caused “empty shelves and sky-high prices”; the information requests were sent to nine of America’s largest importers and focus on “strategies related to global supply chains”
  • Since April, US wages have grown an average of 12% in 2021 vs. 2020
  • Despite highly anemic Black Friday results, overall holiday shopping spending remains 10% higher year-on-year in 2021
  • A Tale of Two Demand Types: While up 17.3% since February 2020, demand for durable goods is down 12.7% since March 2021; demand for non-durable goods, however, continues to increase and is currently 14% higher than February 2020
  • While US ports set records for importer volumes, the retailers’ inventory to sales ratio remains stubbornly low compared to January 2019; please note our trending chart for the ratio in 2021:
Inventory-to-sales-ratio-chart | Supply Chain Reactions

Global Governmental Odds, Ends, Ways, and Means

World Trade Organization (WTO) summit in Geneva due to Omicron fears; the notable agenda items include deregulation of vaccine trade, essential improvements for decreased agricultural protectionism, and a broad-based empowerment of the WTO itself

  • More than 350 global Harmonized System numbers, affecting 1500 US tariff codes, are set to change on January 1; the greatest number of changes will occur for electrical machinery and parts, wood, textiles, and organic chemicals
  • China’s factory activity unexpectedly increased in November after three months of regression due to governmental power rationing and a tremendous surge in the cost of raw materials; November exports were up 22% compared to a year ago
  • YTD Chinese exports by value to the US are up 28.3% vs. 2020, while Chinese imports from the US have increased by an impressive 36.9%

Ocean Needs a Potion for Motion

ShapLight Focus: Vessel waiting time for a berth at Los Angeles/Long Beach (LA/LGB) has reached an average of 18.8 days after averaging 13.4 days a month ago; this has fueled speculation that steamships are simply slowing down in the Pacific and that recent reports of congestion diminishment are largely symbolic

  • Additionally, the average size of vessels at anchor in Southern California has increased sharply; more than 50% of the vessels in the harbor are over 10,000 TEUs, which is up from 20% recorded in August
  • After two weeks of frequent rain closed two major highways and crippled rail capabilities due to flooding and mudslides in Vancouver, Mother Nature decided to dump some more rain on British Columbia; port officials fear that normal cargo flows will not be possible until January or February of 2022
  • Cargo volume handled in Oakland was down 20% with 43% fewer ships arriving when compared to 2020 as steamship lines bypass the port and head back to Asia after prolonged delays in LA/LGB
  • The Pacific Maritime Association (PMA)— which represents 70 carriers and terminals in 29 West Coast ports— proposed a one-year contract extension, through July 1, 2023, to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU); the ILWU and their 15,000 members immediately rejected the offer
  • In a desperate sign of the times, CMA/CGM is offering incentives for any shipper who can remove their container within eight days of arrival in LA ($100 per box picked up during the day and $200 for nighttime pick-ups); the program is expected to cost $22 million, though the carrier did not comment on the increased profits generated by faster turns
  • Three quarters into 2021, Maersk’s year-to-date revenue stands at $43 billion with pre-tax earnings at $16.6 billion and growing
  • According to Sea Intelligence, Inc, the combined operating profit of steamship lines hit $37.24B in Q3 2021; this number eclipses the combined profits of all carriers from 2010-2020

Air Export Rates Out of China at Record Highs

ShapLight Focus: The average rates from all major Chinese gateway airports (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen) sit between $17 and $20 per kilo with no expectation of diminishment until Chinese New Year; these are the highest sustained rate levels on record

  • Airfreight volume out of Asia is 22.3% higher year-on-year with spikes of over 50% for electronics, medical supplies, and e-commerce goods
  • Global air capacity is down 7.2% due to the continuing reduction in passenger flights
  • Global airfreight volume is up 9.4%; this combined with lower capacity has allowed airlines to establish and maintain the highest average air rates globally in history
  • Despite impressive air cargo profits, the airline industry is forecast to lose $12B in 2021; the good news is that this is a 78% improvement over 2020
  • Global dynamic load factors (derived from a combination of weight and space) eclipsed 80% in November, indicating a successful focus on the efficient use of airline assets
Air Cargo Capacity | Supply Chain Reactions

US Domestic Landscape Shifting to Retail/Wholesale/Warehousing

ShapLight Focus: Total domestic ton-mileage has shifted by 10 percentage points away from manufacturing and mining in favor of retail/wholesale/warehousing; after decades above 70%, the manufacturing and mining sector now accounts for just 60% of US ton-miles

  • After adjusting for cost-of-living and inflation, it is estimated that truckers are paid 40% less today than they were before deregulation in the late 1970s
  • Turnover for truck drivers working for companies with $30 million in revenue or more sits at a staggering 92% nationwide
  • The Union Pacific Railroad (UP) has commenced testing semi-automated cranes at Chicago’s Global IV rail terminal; congestion has crippled Chicago during the cargo surge
  • Cass estimates that prices across all domestic modes are up 31.4% in 2021 vs. 2020
  • Warehouse vacancy rates in Southern California sit below 0.5%, with rents in that sector up more than 50% since January
  • 27% of the world’s shipping containers passing through ports globally are empty
  • Every $1B in online sales requires 1M square feet of warehouse space; with US e-commerce sales breaking records above $900B, this means that the current warehouse space in the US devoted to e-commerce is twice as large as the island of Manhattan

Please note our ‘Orange Crush’ Map of US Drayage Backlogs:


Import Freight Rate Trend Charts

Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast (per 40’):
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast | Supply Chain Reactions
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’):
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’) | Supply Chain Reactions

Air Import Rate Trends, LAX | Supply Chain Reactions

Import Rate Trends, JFK | Supply Chain Reactions

Our Expert Shapinion

Steamship Goliaths Said to be Favoring BCO and NVO Goliaths

Carrier giants are coming to the painful conclusion that despite their growing capacity and huge financial muscles, they will not be able to carry current contract minimum quantity commitments (MQCs) in the 2022-2023 contract year.

While only Maersk and Hapag Lloyd have publicly proclaimed the strategy, many steamship behemoths are making moves to eliminate or downsize contracts for certain shipper-types— namely the “Davids”, the underdogs, the size-challenged crowd amongst shippers and NVOs.

Industry observers expect ocean carriers to eye shipper colossuses with colossal desire since larger BCOs and global NVOs have deep enough pockets to risk multi-year contract gambles for capacity at today’s elevated rates. The carriers have never had as much leverage as they have today, and they are eager to manage future demand while preserving higher rates, despite highly uncertain future consumer demand and gargantuan capacity increases from new mega vessels looming in 2023.

Carrier Goliaths have grown dependent on high-cost charter deals to take better advantage of today’s surge and, while operational blank sailings effectively manage supply, they are very costly. Additionally, most carriers are very eager to reduce operating costs by digitizing booking and documentation products and services. Goliath believes that a shorter list of fellow giants is the best means to mitigate risk while simplifying back-office operations.

…Where Does that Leave Shippers and Smaller NVO Davids?

Despite their relatively diminutive size, smaller shippers and NVOs move the majority of global cargo, yet this size-stunted population can expect drastically reduced MQCs next year if they get a contract at all! This means that these shippers will be hunting for space one slingshot load at a time—a transactional nightmare that painfully echoes 2020 and 2021.

So, why are many supply chain pundits placing their bets on David? If at any point in the current shipping cycle the market weakens and spot rates soften, the adorable leprechauns of the industry, unburdened by long-term carrier contracts, will be the first to benefit from a commoditized market—the one created by Goliath to serve Goliath. We have already witnessed flattening prices for spot rates and FAK over the last six months, and there is no reason to expect an endless rate climb into 2022.

Once the market weakens, mammoth shippers may well view their long-term contract locks as handcuffs, and one imagines a battle to end all battles between Goliath and… well, Goliath. Who needs a slingshot when Goliath is fighting himself? Yes, the ocean giants will lower contract rates in this scenario, but it’s very hard to imagine that those reductions will reach the potential low ebb of the spot market.

David will ultimately triumph when the supply/demand imbalance swings back in favor of normal-sized shippers during the next contract cycle and ocean carrier monoliths will more aggressively pursue dancing pixie shippers after they (we) lay down our slingshots. At the end of the day, especially after the capacity flood of 2023, Goliath will have experienced a downturn in demand and an inevitable shortfall of MQC, and this will put David back in the spotlight for favorable rates and services. Long live David!


 Shap Fact of the Issue:

According to Adobe, “out of stock” messages on retailers’ websites are up 172% this year. As a result, online sales of second-hand goods in the US are trending to smash previous records and hit $65 billion in 2021.


The leadership and staff of Shapiro understand the personal and business anxiety each of you is experiencing. We want nothing but safety and a return to normalcy for you and your families. Please reach out to us if you have any questions—or if we can assist you in any way.

Up Next: The Problem with Ocean Freight and Air Cargo Rates

Supply Chain Reactions

A Condensed Update For American Shippers
Issue Date: October 14, 2021

Quote of the Issue:

If I had a dollar for every time I got distracted, I wish I had a puppy.

–  Anonymous. 


Drewry Forecasts Steamship Industry Profits of $300B for 2021

ShapLight Focus: Hapag-Lloyd made $3.3B in the first 6 months of 2021 while Cosco put $10.5B on the board through Q3; not to be outdone, Maersk has estimated final profits at $15B for 2021

  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its annual forecast to 10.8% growth for global merchandise trade
  • American imports should eclipse 26 million TEUs in 2021; this will obliterate the previous record of 22 million TEUs in 2020
  • It is estimated that more than a third of the world’s 25 million shipping containers and 6,000 merchant ships are “dislocated” and not in the right place to properly handle cargo
  • The top 10 steamship lines now handle more than 85% of the world’s commercial cargo
  • The Asia-to-US trade (Transpacific) now deploys 21% of the world’s capacity and has tied the Asia-to-Europe trade as the world’s largest
  • There are currently 28 vessels anchored an average of 10 days outside Los Angeles; when you add Long Beach, the number of vessels in the harbor is well above 50

US Trade Representative Evaluating Reinstatement of 301 Exclusions

ShapLight Focus: The office of the USTR will consider arguments for reinstatement of the 549 commodities on a case-by-case basis, and they made it clear that any duty relief will only apply to cargo entered on October 12th and later

  • After linking passage of the physical infrastructure spending bill to a much larger “human infrastructure” bill, both measures have stalled in The House with the vote now suspended until October 30th
  • The Senate Judiciary Committee interviewed Jonathan Kanter, the nominee for Assistant Attorney General for the DOJ’s Antitrust Division who has built a reputation for vigorous antitrust enforcement to protect US agriculture; Kanter appears to have bi-partisan support, and his appointment would be another indication that the shipping industry should expect more regulation enforcement in future
  • On January 1, widespread changes to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) are scheduled to be implemented with particularly impactful changes for electronics, textiles, and wood products; the changes will affect classifications at the 4-digit and 6-digit levels for participating countries worldwide

Air Cargo Yields Rocket to 100% of Airline Profits

ShapLight Focus: After averaging 12% of global airline profits from 2010-2019, air cargo now accounts for 100% of airline profits; IATA estimates 2021 year-end air cargo revenue will reach an impressive $175B, while passenger operations are set to lose over $225B

  • Looking to charter a freighter? The average capacity of a 747 freighter gets you about 12 x 40HC of space, if you can average 22,000 lbs. per container and fork over $1.5-2.8M
  • September airfreight results in 2021 vs. 2019: 1% demand growth + 13% capacity decline = 80% rate increases
  • As we gnash our teeth over ocean carrier profits, DHL (owned by Deutsche Post) has announced YTD profits over $6.6B; they expect Q4 to push them over $10B for 2021
  • Speaking of couriers, integrators, and Amazon, please note the total aircraft owned and operated by companies famous for e-commerce logistics:
    • FedEx: 685
    • UPS: 284
    • DHL: 250
    • Amazon: 74
    • US Postal: 0
  • Global dynamic load factors (derived from a combination of weight and space) reached a lofty 70% in October, and the industry expects levels of 80% or greater in Q4

As We Compare the Fate of Cargo and Passenger Results for Airlines, Please Note our Chart of the Issue:

Global Airlines Revenue Chart | Supply Chain Reactions

US Transportation Wins 135,000 Jobs, While Trucking Loses

135,000 transportation jobs in September including 31,000 in warehousing and 22,000 in courier; unfortunately, the US trucking industry lost close to 2,000 jobs over the same time period

  • Citing deep recruitment problems, early retirements, and COVID-cancelled driving schools, the Minnesota Trucking Association estimates that the US has a trucker shortage of 60,000 and growing
  • During National Truck Driver Appreciation Week, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee voted down an amendment that would have provided $1B for trucking parking projects
  • The Cass Linehaul Index indicates a nearly 13% increase in FTL pricing in September 2021 vs. 2020
  • A wheel inside a (broken) wheel: many trucking companies have expressed alarm over shipping delays and costs associated with repair parts for their fleets

Please note our ‘Orange Crush’ Map of US Drayage Backlogs:


Ocean Import Freight Rate Trend Charts

Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast (per 40’):
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’):

Our Expert Shapinion

Limited Time Only: Freight Quotes Valid for at least two years

Yes, your eyes do not deceive you. In a time when shipping quotations have shorter attention spans than goldfish (some are seemingly valid for 30 minutes these days), only Shapiro offers you freight quotes good for 2 to 20 years. Request a quote today!


When looking out at LA harbor…

I came, I saw, I cowered.”

-Julius Cargo Seizure Caesar

After paying yet another demurrage bill…

“In the end, it’s not the years in your life that count. It’s the free time in your years.”

-Abe’s Freight Ain’t Linkin’

As we look at the broader global supply

“Supply chain is what happens when you’re busy making other plans.”

-John Bitter Lemon Lennon

As we pray for government oversight…

“Ask not what you can do for the FMC, ask what the FMC can do for you.”

-John F’ing Kiddingme

When Looking for better cargo routings…

“You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose. But pick Egypt, Pan’ma, Ningbo, Yantian you’ll lose!”

-Dr. Suez

Supply Chain Reactions

When looking at ocean carrier commercial practices…

Supply Chain Reactions | Mother Teresa Emoji

“It’s not about how much you do but how much profit you put in what you do that counts.”

Mother of All Markets Teresa

As port truckers view the playing field…

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much expected by so many of so few.”

-Win-Some-Lose-Some Churchill

As we all look at 2022 shipping realities…

Supply Chain Reactions | FDR emoji

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself… and absolutely everything else!”

-Frankly Delays Rouse-My-Pelt


Shap Fact of the Issue:

The US per capita value of imports per year has eclipsed $8,000 and exceeded $5,000 for exports (both all-time highs). Based on a GDP per capita of approximately $64,000, this means that more than 20% of our economic destiny is directly connected to international trade


The leadership and staff of Shapiro understand the personal and business anxiety each of you is experiencing. We want nothing but safety and a return to normalcy for you and your families. Please reach out to us if you have any questions—or if we can assist you in any way.


Up next: Supply Chain Buckles Under Consumer Demand

Supply Chain Reactions

A Condensed Update For American Shippers
Issue Date: September 7, 2021

Quote of the Issue:

Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work.”

–  Aristotle 


Ocean Supply Chain’s so Darn Freaky, It’s Hurting our GDP

ShapLight Focus: The US economy grew 6.5% in Q2 2021, but that figure fell well short of economists’ predictions of 8% growth due to supply chain backlogs

  • A single COVID case at Ningbo’s Meishan Terminal led to a complete closure of the complex, thereby reducing total cargo flow from the world’s 3rd largest port by about 20% for more than a week
  • Please note the average number of vessels at anchor this week for the following US ports:
    • Los Angeles: 46
    • Oakland: 15
    • Savannah: 21
    • Seattle:  10
  • Operational blank sailings are back up to 50,000 TEUs per week for Asia to the US; while shippers are screaming bloody murder, ocean carriers point to US ports’ inability to handle current volumes
  • It is estimated that a full 25% of ocean capacity is being lost to shipping delays
  • The average transit time from Shanghai to Chicago via Los Angeles – normally 35 days – has reached 73 days
  • COVID-19 outbreaks, lockdowns, and shelter-in-place orders for Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia have rendered close to 50% of factories and their production inoperative
  • Current actual ocean import rates (defined as contracts + FAK + premium surcharges) from Asia to US are now 700-800% above their 5-year averages

Please note our chart of the issue:

Chart-of-the-Issue-August-SCR | Supply Chain Reactions
  • The question haunting us all: “when will this freight market be at least closer to normal?” Please note the US retail inventory to sales ratio and realize that this freaky madness will certainly continue well into 2022; the spike in import demand is FAR from over, gang
Inventory-to-Sales-Ratio-August-SCR

Senate Approves a $550B Increase in US Infrastructure Spending

ShapLight Focus: The $550B includes: $110B for roads and bridges, $66B for rail infrastructure, $25B for airports, $17B for ocean ports, and $15B for electric vehicles; in total, 42.4% of the new spending is earmarked for vital US transportation improvements:

  • Cosco Shipping and Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) have rejected high profile accusations from a US importer (MCS Industries) that they failed to fulfill contract obligations and colluded on pricing while also declaring that the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) does not have legal purview over the matter; the trade is watching this case closely, though the FMC will not make its final decision until late 2022 or early 2023
  • Forced labor remains a high priority issue for Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and they have issued close to 700 Withhold Release Orders (WRO) since October 2020 for shipments from China; in comparison, a total of 17 WROs were issued for China from January 1994 to September 2020
  • Many importers are still waiting for the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the Miscellaneous Trade Bill (MTB) to be renewed by Congress; both essential trade bills have been expired since the end of 2020

Supply Reduction Helps Airlines’ Profit Production

ShapLight Focus: For the first half of 2021, airline cargo revenues are up almost 80% vs. 2019 (a better comparison than COVID-tainted 2020 results) as limited air cargo capacity commands higher rates; the aggregate number of chargeable kilos is almost exactly equal for the same period – 2021 vs. 2019 – but the continued diminishment of passenger flight belly space provides at least some off-set to lost passenger revenues

  • In 2020, Memphis passed Hong Kong as the busiest cargo airport on the planet after loading and unloading 4.6 million metrics tons of cargo
  • The airline industry expects an Apple “airlift” from China in the next two weeks
  • Apple’s massive project comes at just the wrong time for Shanghai’s Pudong Airport as they address a COVID-19 outbreak; several airlines are diverting cargo and flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhengzhou
  • Current prospects for airline cargo profits remained very positive in July with global demand up 8.6% and global supply down 10.3% vs. 2019

Air-Stats-by-Region-August-SCR
*Please note: Africa’s market share is 1.9%, but July data was not yet available.

Please note the following three-month airfreight rate trend charts:

Air-Import-Rate-Trends-JFK-August-SCR

Air-Import-Rate-Trends-LAX-August-SCR

Domestic Freight Infrastructure All Choked Up

ShapLight Focus: West Coast containerized cargo now takes 14-24 days to get from vessels to trains with Oakland (14-day average), Seattle (18-day average), and LA/LGB (24-day average) all struggling with massive congestion

  • With an overall truck power scarcity crisis across the US, especially in the drayage sector, it is disappointing to learn that the number of valid US commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) have decreased since 2019
  • While only 6.7% of US trucking jobs are held by females today, it is encouraging that a portion of the money inside the $550B infrastructure package is allocated to study female recruitment in trucking
  • The trade was shocked when the Union Pacific Railroad (UP) cancelled service from Los Angeles to Chicago for a week; the railroad industry has hinted that extreme route changes may be executed in the future to improve overall efficiency
  • The state of Georgia has extended hours of service limits for truckers due to a surge in COVID-19 cases putting renewed pressure on local supply chains
  • Despite sharp criticism for the number of vessels at anchor, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are operating at 160-170% of historical productivity; while this may sound like good news, it only underscores the continuing cargo pressures on dray providers, warehouses, and railroads

Please note our ‘Orange Crush’ Map of US Drayage Backlogs:

Import Freight Rate Trend Charts

Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast (per 40’):
USWC-August-SCR
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’):
USEC-August-SCR

Our Expert Shapinion

SCR & OES Graphic - August 2021

On Labor Day, we at Shapiro pay tribute to all of you in the international supply chain. We know you have all said, “make the ride stop!” more than a few hundred times since 2020.

For this issue, however, we will single out a few of the most dangerous and sometimes most thankless jobs in the physical supply chain. We’d like you to imagine you are listening directly to the voices and stories of three individuals— the Seafarer, the Drayman, and the Longshoreman.

The Seafarer

I got into this profession to see the world and live a life of adventure despite the very modest wages. Yes, my 1.7M brothers and sister sailors on 50,000 merchant ships risk our lives with typhoons, hurricanes, pirates, and the incredible weight and force of potentially shifting containers and cargo. That said, we also enjoy the sunshine and the pure beauty of the ocean while visiting exotic lands, cultures, and peoples. And, our crewmates – though most typically from the Philippines or China – are a true melting pot of the people of the Earth.

The job requires bravery, agility, and finesse, and ships sail 24 hours a day, 7-days-a-week. We work long shifts every day while on a 3-month contract (typically), but then we (typically) have a long period of rest at home or in some new exotic port. That is until COVID-19 hit.

Today, many of us do not get relief after 3 months. Replacement crews may be sick or in quarantine; foreign ports often do not allow us off our vessel. The average seafarer is now working 6-month cycles or longer. With fatigue comes mistakes and physical danger.

A heartbreaking 200,000 seafarers are classified as “abandoned” by unscrupulous ship owners. These ship owners would not be the famous steamship line names you know well, but there is a huge network of feeder vessels, bulk ships, and other key assets in the global supply chain. The saddest moment for me personally was when we docked at my home port, and I was not permitted to enter the country amid COVID concerns. I couldn’t make it to my favorite nephew’s wedding, nor my grandmother’s funeral.

What bothers seafarers the most is that 90% of world trade depends on us, and we do not feel respected. We are not considered essential workers because we are in an “out of sight, out of mind” profession, and governments do not prioritize our health and well-being. We are all but forgotten. Only 2.5% of us are vaccinated, and the world should be very worried about the availability of trained and skilled labor for seafarers, both officers and ratings. After all, many of us must leave our beloved profession after our deep personal suffering in 2020 and into 2021.

seafarer | Supply Chain Reactions

The Drayman

Like the average American trucker, I am a 55-year-old man, and I’ve been driving for over 20 years. Fortunately for me, I own my rig and it meets local pollution standards. I can tell you that a whole bunch of truckers are on lease-to-own programs or drive company-owned assets. While most trucking companies out there are honest and fair, that isn’t always the case. I’ve heard horror stories about guys getting fired near the end of a lease-to-own and losing the truck investment and the job in one fell swoop.

Like seafarers, most of us got into this business for the potential of freedom and travel. There is just nothing quite as beautiful as a sunrise or sunset on the open road. Also, the drayage industry attracts recent immigrants to a high degree, and I have friends from every Central American country and a bunch from Eastern Europe, too. I wish there were more women in the business, but we are a colorful bunch of hard workers with crazy true stories of the road.

Despite the hours and time away from my family, I was doing okay until 2020. First, the business completely dried up, and I had to deplete my savings. Then, the business came back…and came back, and came back; now, we have gone from a complete drought to a flood of work. You’d think this is a good thing for my fellow dray truckers and myself. Here’s the rub: we dray guys count on port turns for our income, and we get an hourly pittance for time spent fetching chassis and empties. Port and rail congestion has my industry averaging 50% of our typical turns, and what we all call “equipment control” ain’t controlled at all.

Frankly, I see ocean carriers, forwarders, and even retailers making a killing in the cargo surge, and, despite huge rate hikes, I can’t make the turns per day to keep my income where I need it. During COVID, I can’t find a place to eat or even a bathroom for God’s sake! And, every state, every port, and every loading dock has different rules and interpretations of COVID protocol. If it sounds like I am whining, I’m not done yet! We also get stuck fighting about demurrage and per diem when carriers won’t even allow me to bring home the empty or chassis or both.

So, I mentioned that I am 55, and that is the industry average. Women are only 6.7% of the power picture in drayage. Recent immigration policies have slowed the potential employment pool. Maybe recruiting returning military vets will help, but we are in a driver supply crisis. By the end of 2021, they estimate that we will have a shortage of truck drivers of 100,000!

Fewer commercial driver’s licenses are in place today than in 2019. Why is that? Because people can find better pay, less aggravation, and jobs that get them home every night… that’s why. Even guys like me who won’t leave the dray business can be picky on routes these days. I can limit my interstate moves and get home more. At the end of the day, nobody seems too worried about the dray business. Hell, I struggle to get a delivery ticket signed at warehouses in under 30 mins. Why would that be?

Foreman control loading Containers box
Foreman control loading containers box from a Cargo freight ship

The Longshoreman

Some of you won’t be happy with Shapiro for including me. Look, let’s get this out in the open right here. Longshoreman and stevedores are a controversial population in the US supply chain, and we know it. But we aren’t the ones buying a new fridge or sofa or treadmill; you consumers are doing that! And we aren’t the ones building bigger and bigger vessels without any real consideration of land-side infrastructure and realities; you ocean carriers are doing that!

What we see and endure is all but invisible. In 2020, we had to work with skeleton crews as COVID swept through our ranks, and many back-ups just lack the experience and training to be as effective as a veteran like me. As the demand for imports surges (and surges), we have less room to operate on port, and that is a good recipe for accidents. Oh, and don’t get me started about people on cell phones on the port; you dray guys can’t make your turns, so you are calling dispatch, but I need you to look up and see those stop signs and dock workers in front of you!

COVID also forced us to social distance, test regularly, and sometimes quarantine. Our operations have been perfected and tested for decades, and now we are playing a new game entirely. At the end of the day, we are not happy to see 40 vessels outside LA or 20 outside Savannah, but a closer look reveals port productivity stats of 150% or higher compared to historical averages. And the faster we work, the more dangerous it gets, people. Also, as we utilize our cranes and equipment more during the surge, it breaks down and needs maintenance much more often. So, even the highly automated Rotterdam is struggling badly during COVID.

We are all closely watching the ILWU negotiations as we head into 2022, but it is just too easy to blame longshoremen and our unions for port congestion. The US system was not built for this kind of demand, and the ocean vessels are not hitting ports when they say they will, and the warehouses/truckers/railroads can’t even move what we do off-load. We feel like the last guy holding the bag, and that makes us vulnerable to criticism and blame.

longshoreman | Supply Chain Reactions

Happy Labor Day, All!

We at Shapiro thank our “eyewitnesses,” and we thank all of you for taking a moment to think about those in the line of fire along the physical supply chain. We may all have opinions, political and otherwise, but I’m pretty sure that we all realize that it takes all of us to keep the cargo and the economy moving, no matter the size of the hill or mountain in front of us.


 Shap Fact of the Issue:

Before 1980, the US Federal Government never spent more than $550B in a budget year; however, the announced $550B US infrastructure increase will be far less than 10% of government spending in the next fiscal budget.


The leadership and staff of Shapiro understand the personal and business anxiety each of you is experiencing. We want nothing but safety and a return to normalcy for you and your families. Please reach out to us if you have any questions—or if we can assist you in any way.


Up Next: Hapag-Lloyd Steams in with $3.3b Profits for 2021

Supply Chain Reactions

A Condensed Update For American Shippers
Issue Date: July 14, 2021

Quote of the Issue:

“There was never a night or a problem that could defeat sunrise or hope.”

–  Bernard Williams


Record Carrier Profits Amid Market Chaos and Dysfunction

ShapLight Focus: Ocean carrier profits have already exceeded all of 2020 and are projected to eclipse $100B by the end of 2021, a result that would best the 11 years before COVID combined

  • 55% of total Asia to US trade volume touches the port of Yantian, with 10% shipping directly from that massive gateway; it will take months to calculate the total cumulative delay of the work stoppage in Shenzhen
  • Blank sailings to the US averaged 80,000 TEUs a week in June as ocean carriers continued to place vessels and containers in their correct circulatory flow; July blanks are expected to diminish to 50,000 TEUs a week, which is still 10% of total capacity
  • Drewry estimates that 16% of global capacity is lost due to poor port productivity; American ports are notoriously less productive than those in Asia and Europe
  • Global shipping demand is forecasted to increase by 10% in 2021 and another 5% in 2022, while new ship buildings are set to increase capacity by just 4.2% in 2021 and 2.8% in 2022; our days of chronic under-supply are far from over
  • Los Angeles and Oakland continue to average more than 15 vessels at anchor or at drift on any given day
  • The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) contract, which covers the US West Coast, expires in mid-2022
  • NVO market share has increased 10%, from 43% to 53%, since 2019 as spot market and premium options now dominate the overall playing field
  • Current FAK rates from Asia to US are 350-450% above their 5-year averages, and this does not even include premium surcharges for many carriers
Average-Premium-Surcharge-Graph-July-2021 | Carrier Profits

The Biden Administration Targets Ocean Shipping and Railroads

ShapLight Focus: The White House called on the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) and the Surface Transportation Board (STB) to act against carrier practices that make it onerously expensive for American companies to transport their products

  • The US Court of International Trade (CIT) announced that it will halt the liquidation of unliquidated entries subject to 301 tariffs in the wake of the thousands of plaintiffs who filed lawsuits questioning the legality of List 3 and List 4 tariffs on Chinese goods
  • Specific to detention and demurrage, President Joe Biden signed an executive order on July 9 that calls for the FMC to “consider further rulemaking to improve detention and demurrage practices and enforcement of related Shipping Act prohibitions”
  • The US has been generous with global vaccination distribution, but US importers are increasingly worried about the sustainability of their production chains as the Delta variant arrives in countries with low vaccination rates
Supply Chain Reactions | Vaccination Rates | Carrier Profits

Airfreight Costs at Lowest Relative Cost to Ocean in History

ShapLight Focus: The cost of airfreight relative to ocean is typically over 1000% and averaged 1200% higher in 2019; with ocean freight skyrocketing, airfreight is only 600% more expensive, a new record for this measure (and despite a 77% increase in air rates since 2019)

  • Speaking of rates, YTD airfreight rates for 2021 are 77% higher than 2019, with almost exactly the same chargeable volume; reduced capacity continues to support higher rates
  • General Sales Agents (GSAs) now book an impressive 25.3% of all air cargo globally
  • International load factors for air cargo hit 65%, which is 13 percentage points higher than historical averages; airlines are certainly doing the most with the capacity present
  • eComm currently represents 16% of global airfreight, but experts project that eComm will occupy 33% of air cargo volume by 2025; the value of eComm cargo is projected to be $4.4 trillion
  • Global airfreight capacity continues to expand gradually though it is still 10-11% lower than in 2019

Please note the following three-month airfreight rate trend charts:

Air Import Rate Trends - JFK - July 2021 - Supply Chain Reactions - Carrier Profits

Air Import Rate Trends - LAX - July 2021 - Supply Chain Reactions

Airfreight Costs at Lowest Relative Cost to Ocean in History

ShapLight Focus: Please see our map of average dwell times at key US ports and rail ramps:

US Trucking Availability Map - 7.12.21

Ocean Freight Rate Trend Charts

Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast (per 40’):
USWC - July 2021 | Supply Chain Reactions
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’):

Our Expert Shapinion

OES | Supply Chain Reactions

#1: Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Water? Water Who?

Water You Dewing Telling Knock Knock Jokes?

Look, not only is the current market a joke, but it is a joke within a joke within a vicious circle. Suez + Yantian + Blank Sailings + Port Congestion + Detention and Demurrage + Dislocated Containers and Vessels + Skyrocketing Rates … and they all feed the same cycle, again and again. We might as well laugh!

#2: Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Figs. Figs Who?

Figs this US Infrastructure, Please!

Our ports can’t handle mega vessels efficiently, and the overall import volume overwhelms our truckers, our railroads, and our ports while leaving our exporters high and dry. The time has come to improve our roads, bridges, rails, ports, and the underlying transportation technologies. China is outpacing the world when it comes to infrastructure investments; we better wake up!

#3: Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Police. Police Who?

Police Help us with Better Detention and Demurrage Rules, FMC!

In a recent survey, American importers estimated that 15% of their freight budgets were now devoted to demurrage and per diem. This comes at a time when freight rates are 350-450% higher than their five-year averages! That is an “E” on the calculator, y’all!

#4: Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Stopwatch. Stopwatch Who?

Stopwatch You are Doing, Steamship Lines!

We are all so very deeply sorry that your industry struggled with profitability in the decade before COVID, and we too were terrified early in 2020. However, the time has come to focus on fairness, scalability, and a return to collaboration, communication, and partnerships.

When freight rates eclipse $20,000, is it really the best time to be layering in new congestion and inland surcharges? Is it the best time to take a hard line on demurrage? Do you really want to invite regulators and government oversight to our already highly inefficient party?!

Chart of the Issue:

Chart of the Issue - July 2021

#5 Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Dozen. Dozen Who?

Dozen Anybody Else See that Smaller Importers are Being Squeezed Out?

Especially for lower value and heavier cargo, the current high costs and long transit times make international sourcing all but impossible. At the same time, the monolithic wealthy big importers can out-bid the smaller guys when supply is so very scarce. While they may not be actually paying

$20,000, Walmart certainly CAN and WILL pay whatever it takes to secure inventory.

#6 Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Razor. Razor Who?

Razor Hands if You Think Today’s Consumer Demand is Loco!

Talk about a vicious circle. With inventory to sales ratios at 20-year lows, importers are desperate to replenish inventories in part because their supply chains are literally broken with huge delays at each link. At the same time, America seems to be in a goods AND services demand frenzy. While it seems like services will become dominant again,  the question is when!

#7 Knock, Knock. Who’s There? Ice Cream. Ice Cream Who?

Ice Cream every single day in today’s market!

Exactly. Enough said.


Shap Fact of the Issue:

Gallup reported that the percentage of American adults who consider themselves to be “thriving” has reached nearly 60%, an all-time high since the Gallup first published the index in 2008.


The leadership and staff of Shapiro understand the personal and business anxiety each of you is experiencing. We want nothing but safety today and a return to normalcy tomorrow for you and your families. Please reach out to us if you have any questions—or if we can assist you in any way.


Up Next: A Salute to Workers in the Physical Supply Chain

Supply Chain Reactions

A Condensed Update For American Shippers
Issue Date: May 26, 2021

Quote of the Issue:

Here comes the sun, and I say, it’s all right.

–  George Harrison


Who Says the Suez is Done Wrecking Progress for Global Shipping?

ShapLight Focus: An estimated 40% of all global ocean bookings were delayed or rolled in May; although there are no recorded statistics for global delays, this is thought to be the highest rate in history

  • In May, the Asia-to-US trade saw 20% of total capacity removed from the marketplace through blank sailings
  • The 2M has announced three consecutive weeks of blank sailings on key East Coast and Gulf services for June in an attempt to get their global vessel rotations back in order following the “Suez Hot Mess”
  • European exports to the US have quietly increased by 15% YTD in 2021; with all available capacity aimed at Asia to Europe and Asia to North America, prices are expected to rise considerably
  • 2021 Steamship Profit Highlights:
    • Maersk reported a Q1 net profit of $2.72B; which is 1295% better than Q1 2020
    • COSCO reported a $2.39B Q1 profit; this is 3883% better than Q1 2020
    • Hapag Lloyd reported an improvement of 1423% Q over Q in 2021 for a total profit of $1.45B
  • Just as Los Angeles/Long Beach (LA/LGB) begins to clear backlogs, the port of Oakland is regularly seeing 20+ vessels adrift and 10-15 vessels at anchor
  • Speaking of LA/LGB, the port complexes in Southern CaIifornia have averaged 135% more volume in the last 10 months vs. the 10 months prior; based on today’s productivity standards, LA/LGB will maximize their total capacity – 23-25 million TEU/year – by 2027

Please note our map of average dwell times throughout US Ports below:

Global Shipping

Gov Corner: Importers Await GSP and MTB Renewals

ShapLight Focus: Ron Wyden, The Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, has announced that he will introduce a bill to renew the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program through January 1, 2027 and the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill (MTB) through the end of 2023; though the implementation dates are not yet known, both renewals are expected to be retroactive

  • While the trade applauds these long-awaited renewals, the bill is expected to establish new eligibility requirements connected to human rights, environmental protection, women’s economic empowerment, the rule of law, and digital trade; as a result, importers will likely scramble to understand the new mandatory and discretionary criteria rules
  • Industry insiders have speculated that the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will reopen the exclusion process in 2021, however it is unlikely that full implementation could occur before 2022
  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) protest processing staff continue to be overwhelmed with volume; any reinstatement of Section 301 exclusions will provoke longer periods of administrative delays
  • In 2020, CBP processed 27,000 protests covering 72,000 entries; the protest volume has not slowed in 2021

Air Cargo Expected to Generate over $150B in 2021

ShapLight Focus: After 27% revenue growth in 2020, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects airlines to improve air cargo profits by an additional 19% in 2021; industry growth from $100B to $150B in two years represents a 50% spike overall, which is some much-needed good news for the beleaguered airline industry

  • Look out, world! Airlines in Asia are bracing for a demand surge as Apple eyes an October launch for their new iPhone
  • Amazingly, it is estimated that up to 8% of air cargo weight comes from documentation (!); this is perhaps the most compelling reason to push for a paperless environment
  • International courier prices have shot up 30%, while realized transits are averaging 200% longer in 2021 compared to 2019
  • It’s expected that airlines will push for continued liberalization of traffic rights for foreign airlines; relaxation of regulations has aided global vaccine distribution, which airlines see as a path for improved ecommerce service in the future
  • In 2021, IATA expects air cargo to account for 33% of airline revenue; this number is far lower than 2020, but remains very high from a historical perspective

Please note our map of average dwell times throughout US Ports below:

Air-Import-Rate-Trends-JFK | Global Shipping

air-import-rate-trends-lax | Global Shipping

Surface Freight Surge Just Scratches the Surface for Truckers

ShapLight Focus: Drayage firms in Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, and Memphis are experiencing driver turnover rates of 25%, with driver pay down almost 20% due to dramatically decreased productivity leading to fewer daily turns

  • Across the country, dray rates are spiking as firms work to increase driver pay per load; while rail and port congestion are horrific, the dray industry indicates that the lack of chassis and chassis splits are by far the worst problems facing the industry
  • Full Truckload (FTL) rates have hit a ten-year high and are now 80% higher than a year ago; the increase in FTL rates also draws drivers from drayage to FTL
  • Demand for all trucking modes combined is up 35% in 2021 YTD
  • Contract and spot pricing for FTL have been near parity for four months running; while contract shippers are not currently incentivized on price, a shift to more contract purchasing is expected this summer as the market stabilizes
  • For April and May, the four largest railroads (CSX, Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific, and BNSF) have experienced approximately 30% volume growth compared to 2020
  • The Cass Freight Index – comprised of 50% FTL, 25% LTL (Less Than Truckload), and 25% Other (including drayage) – measures North American trucking activity by number of shipments; analysts expect 2021 to compete with 2018 as the busiest year on record, despite an April dip caused by congestion and decreased industry efficiency

Chart of the Issue:

Chart-of-the-issue
Source: Cass Transportation Indexes, CRC Analysis

Ocean Freight Import Rate Trend Charts

Ocean Import FAK Rates to US West Coast (per 40’):
Global Shipping | Supply Chain Reactions
Ocean Import FAK Rates to US East Coast (per 40’):
USWC - January 2022 | Global Shipping



Our Expert Shapinion

Supply Chain Reactions | Global Shipping

In 1950, the Magic 8 Ball hit shelves for the first time in the United States; this makes the magical icosahedron six years older than the era of cargo containerization.

How many of us predicted that we would ALL buy appliances, furniture, and exercise bikes?! How many of us foresaw the Empire State Building blocking the Suez Canal?!

How many of us thought we would EVER pay $10,000 to move $15,000 worth of goods?!

 Nobody. Nadie. Niemand. Personne. Méiyǒu rén.                                                                         

At that rate, we might as well use a Magic 8 Ball to predict the coming freight realities in 2021 and 2022. Hey, that’s not a bad idea… I mean it is filled with blue liquid like the ocean!

Oh, and before any of you market prognosticators scoff, 328 million Magic 8 Balls have been sold since 1950. That’s one for every US citizen – come on, we know you have one in the back of that brand new dresser, wardrobe, or filing cabinet…!

Question #1: Will the NITL Succeed in Reforming the Shipping Act?

Context: The National Industrial Transportation League (NITL) has submitted several proposed reforms to the Shipping Act of 1984 to better protect importers on demurrage/detention, booking commitments, equipment availability, and a clear process to file carrier complaints. Not surprisingly, the World Shipping Council (WSC), which represents the steamship industry (an industry well-protected by antitrust immunity) said, “…there is no legislative policy that can change the systemic physical challenges caused by the COVID-19 cargo crunch.”

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: 1. Don’t count on it. 2. My sources say no.

Question #2: Will My Service Contracts Provide Me with Enough Allocation?

Context: In 2020, most importers were essentially abandoned by ocean carriers if they did not agree to the infamous “mutually agreed” PSS (peak season surcharge). For 2021 contract negotiations, the vast majority of deals are openly subject to PSS, and the carriers trimmed MQC (minimum quantity commitment) for unfavorable lanes and cargoes.

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: 1. Reply hazy, try again. 2. Ask again later.

Question #3: Will I Be Paying Close to FAK Levels on My Service Contracts?

Context: Pundits estimate that 50% of the current market is moving on “premium” rate levels, with the rest of the market split between contracts and FAK (Freight All Kinds). This will put tremendous pressure on the PSS clauses of most contracts, and we have already seen FAK spike in May.

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: 1. Signs point to yes. 2. It is decidedly so.

Question #4: Can I At Least Expect a Return to Normal Drayage?

Context: Dray turns are down 25-50% across the country thanks to equipment scarcity, port congestion, and splits. Dray turns “drive” driver pay. At the same time, the FTL business is booming in volume and rates; watch those draymen RUN to the FTL side of the house!

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: 1. My reply is no. 2. My reply is no!

Question #5: Will there be Labor Trouble in LA/LGB within Months?

Context: Dray turns are down 25-50% across the country thanks to equipment scarcity, port congestion, and splits. Dray turns “drive” driver pay. At the same time, the FTL business is booming in volume and rates; watch those draymen RUN to the FTL side of the house!

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: 1. You may rely on it 2. Without a doubt.

Question #6: But Airfreight Rates Will Finally Come Down…Right?!

Context: YTD 2021 airfreight demand is about 16% higher than 2019, while passenger belly capacity is very slowly increasing. At the same time, the industry has only increased cargo flights by 2.74% in a year. Oh, and here comes the next iPhone in October!

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: 1. Outlook not so good. 2. Very doubtful.

Question #7: Will China Continue to Rebound for US Import Share?

Context: Despite tremendous tariff and freight cost headwinds, China got back to 2018 import volumes to the US in 2020. With cargo backlogs and pandemic-related production problems in many other countries, China is poised to be a go-to production location for years to come.

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: Yes, definitely. 2. Outlook good.

Question #8: Will US Shippers Fare Better on Freight Budgets in 2021?

Context: Despite tremendous tariff and freight cost headwinds, China got back to 2018 import volumes to the US in 2020. With cargo backlogs and pandemic-related production problems in many other countries, China is poised to be a go-to production location for years to come.

2 Shakes of the Magic 8 Ball: Yes, definitely. 2. Outlook good.

Shap Fact of the Issue:

In 2020, Americans set a record by giving $471B to many diverse charities.  While full data will not be available until April, many financial observers expect the US to shatter this record once all data is collected for 2021.


The leadership and staff of Shapiro understand the personal and business anxiety each of you is experiencing. We want nothing but safety today and a return to normalcy tomorrow for you and your families. Please reach out to us if you have any questions—or if we can assist you in any way.

Up Next: Carrier Profits, Market Chaos, And Dysfunction